Sharks host Oilers on October 10. Who wins this one
Early season openers are where the table from last year lies to you, so keep that in mind before anyone dumps a stack on the moneyline. On paper Edmonton should handle this: 93 points and a plus-13 against San Jose's 86 and a brutal -41 (251-292), and McDavid's crew tends to start fast. The caveat, and there's always a nuance here with tiny October samples, is SAP Center, that building trips visitors every year. I'd lean Oilers on the moneyline but look at the total before committing; a -41 goal difference screams leaky defence, which usually means goals. 📊
I keep my own tables 📊
Rewatching my spreadsheet notes from last season's openers, one thing jumps out: a -41 goal difference over 82 games is basically one lost goal every two nights, and that kind of leak rarely fixes itself over a summer. Jack's right that the table lies in October, but the *direction* of these numbers still matters.
Here's how I'd frame it 📊, San Jose at 24th with 251 goals scored against 292 conceded tells you their problem was structural, both ends of the ice, not bad luck in close games. Edmonton at 14th with 93 points and a plus-13 (282-269) sits in that awkward middle: good enough to outclass a bottom-seven side on paper, shaky enough that the puck line likely carries a premium you don't want to pay on night one. SAP Center being an early-season trap is real but it's a vibes argument, and vibes don't move my stake. Small sample though. One game of new-season data changes everything, so I'd rather wait for the total market to settle than touch the moneyline at opener prices.
anyone remember when the tank era sharks used to steal these opener games in the tank? SAP's been a house of horrors for edmonton plenty of nights 😄
Seen it all, lads.
McDavid on opening night, going to be 🔥. Oilers moneyline for me, small stake tho, SAP trips teams sometimes ah well, nowt to do 💪
Edmonton ML for me, and I'll sprinkle the puck line. That -41 leak doesn't vanish over one summer. Oilers to land it 🍺
The line moves — catch it.
Agree with Tom, that -41 leak won't vanish overnight 😱 but SAP opener got spooky vibes tbh. Dropping C$20 on Oilers ML, no puck line, small bank mercy 🔥
One love, one side ❤️
First thing I check on these is who's in net, and neither goalie situation is settled yet for the 10th, so I'm holding my stake until lineups drop. The -41 vs +13 gap says Oilers ML, but opener nights at SAP have burned me before, paid C$40 on a similar spot last year and watched it die in the third. Small on Edmonton, no puck line until I see the price move. 💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
JackBeliever gets it tbh, sitting out until the goalies are named is the smart move 🥶 I got torched on an opener at SAP few years back, watched from the couch like it was game 7 of the Cup final, never again on a blind stake. Oilers ML for me but only a small C$20 once lineups drop, you just know McDavid's gonna show out 💪
You don't abandon your own.
The goalie note in here is the whole bet, honestly. I got burned on an opener like this a while back. Loaded up on a favourite ML, backup netminder got the nod, and my payout died in the first period. C$60 gone before I finished my beer 😭
So yeah, Oilers ML and even a bit of puck line are the plays on paper. That -41 against a +13 doesn't lie over 82 games. But I'm with JackBeliever: no stake from me until the starters are confirmed for the 10th. SAP opener or not, if Edmonton's number one gets the crease I'll pay the price whatever it is, because value over a big price always wins long run. If it's a backup in a season opener? Then it's a coin flip dressed up as a lock, and I'll pass. The line moved anyway once lineups ripple out, so waiting costs you the juice either way. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Waitin on the goalie news too, lost enough blind opener stakes myself to learn... Oilers ML is the play once lineups drop, puttin maybe C$25 on it na more. That -41 gap dont just go poof overnight ah well, nowt to do til the 10th 💪🔥
On the terraces since I was a kid.
Fair point from everyone on the goalie wait, and I've got my spreadsheet open for October 10 already 📊 The 86 vs 93 points and that -41 goal difference dig a bit deeper than one opener, but San Jose at home in game one is exactly the spot where last year's table tells you nothing yet. I'd lean Oilers ML at a modest stake, small sample though, let's see who actually starts in net before anyone commits real money.
I keep my own tables 📊