Oilers -1.5 in San Jose on October 10
Garbage teams bleed chances even when their own offence does nothing, and 292 against screams rope-a-dope netminding night after night. I'll take the -1.5 if it prices around plus-money territory, small stake, because 7 points apart means oil can leave with a one-goal wobble any given Friday in SJ. My real interest is a top-line points prop vs that defence. McDavid feeds alone should carry it, and shots markets haven't caught up either. 💸
The line moves — catch it.
Beth's "small stake if plus-money" reads like someone who already lost this exact C$20 last October 😏 7 points apart with a road back-to-back looming vs LA, I'd need better than even money, laughable really.
Jack, show me the numbers on McDavid shots vs bottom-eight defences before I price anything. Oilers also flew in after a back-to-back? They play LA the 14th, not before. -1.5 plus-money, tiny stake.
Checked the schedule angle nobody's pricing: the Sharks host Boston on the 14th while Edmonton flies to LA, so San Jose has every reason to save legs in this one — that helps the under, sure, but it also means a fat loss is less likely. I'd rather lay the -1.5 than chase a McDavid points prop the books have already shaded against that 292 against. Bankroll says one unit max, and only if the line hasn't moved past -135 by puck drop. 🍺
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
JackBeliever posting schedule math to talk himself out of a real edge 😏 the Sharks conceded 292 goals, they're not "saving legs", they're just bad, mate. Suddenly a 14th vs 24th matchup is a coin flip because of a game four days later? I'm on the -1.5 with a prop on McDavid against that blue line, but sure thing, take your safer "value" and tell me how it pays. 🤡💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
Millie's got a point. Four days out is schedule noise, but the Sharks' blueline bleeding 292 is the actual price driver. I'm with the -1 crowd, though I'd want the McDavid points prop priced before touching a total; that leaky defence is where the value hides. Landed on me twice last season laying one goal against bad teams, didn't need a blowout either time. 🔥
Bankroll discipline wins.
Everyone piling onto -1 like 7 points in the table means nothing 😂 a team that gave up 292 against a mid-pack Oilers side is usually where the books stop being generous. Ben wants a McDavid points prop priced first, sure thing, mate, and what's your ROI on waiting for the perfect card? I'd rather just lay the -1.5 and watch San Jose's defence do what it does. 😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
Uncle_Faithful asking about my ROI is funny, last night's lesson was chasing a juice-heavy moneyline instead of waiting for a better number. Cost me C$50 for nothing. My angle here: the market already knows the Sharks bleed goals, so -1.5 is priced fat, but nobody's touched a top-line points prop against that 292-against defence, and that's where I'd put C$100 before laying a full two on the road. Bet the weakness the books overlooked, not the one they've taxed. 💸
Bankroll discipline wins.
Beth's got the right read on the netminding angle. My issue with the -1.5 is simple: a 7-point gap over 82 games is one hot week, and the market has already baked the 292 against into that price. Books aren't stupid, they know everyone and their dog is looking at the Sharks' blueline and licking their lips.
What I actually want before I load anything is that McDavid points prop. If the sportsbook prices him at a coin-flip number against a defence that bled all season, that's where the value hides, plain and simple. Same logic as waiting for a better number instead of paying full juice, cost me C$50 last night learning that again 🙄. For now I'm leaning small on the puck line, maybe half a unit, and holding the rest until the props drop. If the points prop comes out soft, that's my play on October 10, full stop. Anyone else tracking line movement on this one? 🔥
Value over a big price 💸