Sens open at Canadian Tire Centre on October 8 vs Philadelphia
Checked the line at the sportsbook this morning and it's Ottawa moneyline, price looks fair enough to me. 99 points last season with 278 goals scored. That's a playoff-calibre outfit, and Philly just isn't on that level right now. Canadian Tire Centre opener, crowd will be loud, home team usually shows up for these. I'd lean Sens in regulation if the juice isn't ugly; plus a small play on the puck line since the opener energy tends to mean Ottawa wins by more than one.
Would I take the 4-1 homestand call? Not quite. Jersey on the road Oct 12 is the trap game between home dates - I see 3-2 at best, maybe 3-1-1. Still going 1 unit on the opener 💸
Value over a big price 💸
I've got that one logged in my season sheet too 📊 - 44 wins against 27 losses and a +32 goal differential puts Ottawa well clear of where Philly sits, so I agree the moneyline is the sane play. Only wrinkle: opening night at Canadian Tire Centre, first real game, small sample alert. Teams can come out flat after a long summer. I'd still take the Sens, but I wouldn't stack the puck line on top of it until we see their legs on October 8.
I keep my own tables 📊
Fair enough Jack, but opener games are where lines get weird - I've been burned more than once betting a heavy moneyline on game one and watching the favourite sleepwalk through 40 minutes. Last October I dropped a chunk of my C$ bankroll doing exactly that. I'd rather take Ottawa on the puck line only if the price pays, otherwise pass and put the play on the Predators game on the 10th instead. Opening night at the Canadian Tire Centre lands weird too often for my taste 💸
Retro, didn't you call the Flyers top-3 in the Metro a couple months back? 😂 Maybe take your own opener advice and sit this one out with the C$ you've got left. Sens win it, and honestly the homestand goes 4-1 too, Jersey on the 12th will be the only sweat 🤡💸
My spreadsheet says openers are where plus-minus lies to you, so I keep the stake small and take the moneyline straight. Nine wins at home down the stretch last year against the losses column being mostly road-oriented, that profile travels fine, and the Flyers don't punish transition defenders, which is Ottawa's only soft spot. I'd fade a puck line here, but the win itself on October 8? Reasonably confident, sample caveats included.
Ben, spreadsheet saying openers lie is a fancy way of admitting you're scared 😱 I was at the Tire Centre when we folded in game one two years back, so nah, I get Retro's point — but 278 goals against Philly? We hang four easy Oct 8 🔥 backing it with a proper chunk of C$ too, ah well, nowt to do 💪
On the terraces since I was a kid.
Paul, 278 goals says nothing about game one of a season - small samples, mate. Compare last October's scoring pace with the March run and you'll see openers run about a goal per team lower across the league. I'll take Ottawa moneyline, but my C$ stays modest; if you want value, the puck line looks juicier than chasing a 4-0 night.
Do the math before you argue.
RideOrDie, openers run cold every year yet we still show up screaming 😱 stakes small, heart huge, Flyers still lose Oct 8 💪 ah well, nowt to do
One love, one side ❤️
RideOrDie has the right of it on openers running cold, and I'd add a defensive angle nobody's touched: 246 goals against is the part of that 99-point profile I don't trust in game one, because new pairings and a summer of rust show up in your own zone before they show up in the scoresheet. Philly's weakness is transition defence, sure, but October 8 I'd rather look at the total or a small-moneyline play than pound Ottawa like Paul wants. Context matters, and one home date against a rebuilding Flyers side tells you almost nothing, sample size caveat applies to every opener on this slate. 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
Zoe scares me with that 246 against tbh 😱 but you just know we're gonna come out flying Oct 8, rust or no rust. Flyers at the Tire Centre? We hang goals, I don't care what RideOrDie's spreadsheet says 🔥 backing our lot with a bit of C$, ah well, nowt to do 💪
One love, one side ❤️
Funny how everyone argues about goals when the schedule itself is the better angle here. Six games in nine days, including a trip to Newark wedged between three home dates, that October 12 Devils game is where I'd expect the legs to go, and it's also the one nobody in this thread has priced in. For the opener itself I lean Ottawa too, but I'd rather take the puck line than the moneyline: Philly as an underdog in game one is exactly the spot where a flat Sens start turns a win into a one-goal squeaker. Keep the stake modest, maybe a small prop on special teams if the price is sane, and save the real conviction for the homestand as a whole. Small sample warning applies to whatever happens on the 8th, mind you - one game tells you almost nothing about where this team actually is 📊
I keep my own tables 📊
Gary's got a point about Newark tbh, but the opener? Flyers at the Tire Centre, we batter them 🔥 dropped a bit of C$ on it already 💪
Heart with the team, head on pause.
What does 9th place actually buy you here, a guaranteed win? Ottawa scored 278 and gave up 246 - that's a coin-flip goal differential wearing a nice record. I'd want a price better than fair moneyline before touching the Flyers game; show me the numbers on how openers treat teams that leak like that. Not convinced.
Locked my C$ on the Oct 8 moneyline, passed the puck line. Too rich for an opener. Fanatic, 9th place cashed for me plenty last season. See you after the match 😭🔥
Up one week, down the next. Classic.