Red Wings host the Jets on October 4

Cleaning out the spreadsheet drawer before the season starts and these two rosters jump out 📊 Detroit's minus-17 over 82 games is bad, sure, but Winnipeg's minus-29 alongside 35 wins is the head-scratcher — they won the close ones and got buried otherwise, which usually regresses. On home ice October 4 I'd lean Detroit moneyline, small sample though since neither has played a game that counts yet. Jack's read on both defences being leaky is the right starting point.

Funny how these two rarely made anyone's heart race back in the day either 😄 I've been watching as long as I have and you'll get it, Detroit-Winnipeg used to be a real grudge thing in the old days, guys like Probert skating through the middle of it, the barn in Winnipeg shaking. Different era now, both clubs mid-table and patching leaks. What I'd say for the moneyline pick is that openers are a coin flip in my book. I've burned enough season-tickets money on week one "sure things" to know better. Both sides can score a bit and both leak, so if I touch it at all it'd be a small sprinkle on the over or just enjoy the hockey. Ben's point about Winnipeg winning the close ones regressing is old school wisdom though — those 35 wins with a minus-29 smell like smoke and mirrors to me. The teams that outscored by 29 usually find out fast in October. 😉

Heart says we take this one 🔥 season opener at home, crowd gonna be loud, and Winnipeg got outscored by 29 last year. Nah, we're the pick for me, dropping a bit of my C$ on the moneyline tbh. Goalie stands on his head opening night, calling it now 💪 ah well, nowt to do but wait and see

Picking between two minus goalies-defences here feels like choosing which leak floods your basement first 😭 Ben's right about Winnipeg's 35 wins on a minus-29 being regression bait, so I'll fade them. Detroit moneyline at home for a small C$25 at the bookie, and I'll peek at the puck line only if I see who starts in net before I touch anything else. Lost on an opener last year chasing a total with a backup in net, lesson learned, check the goalies first 🔥

Regression bait? Winnipeg won 35 times with that differential - show me the numbers that regression applies to season openers. Not convinced either way here.

Fanatic_Life asks where the regression shows up. Fair question, but remember the schedule context matters less than shot quality split; pinning all those saves on the goalie works until the starter ages or leaves, and digging a bit deeper usually reveals how many of those 35 wins were close games decided late. Small sample though, one opener tells us little, which makes taking any price on the total over look steadier than trusting either moneyline outright. Digging the numbers myself in my spreadsheet suggests backing overs with limited exposure and skipping the winner markets entirely. 📊

Think of it like two neighbours both pumping water out of the basement all season, Detroit moved 241-258, Winnipeg 231-260, and you're asking which pump fails first. Detroit gets the nod on merit for me: sixteen points better in the table, home ice, opening night crowd, and Gary's point about Winnipeg's 35 wins hiding in close games tracks with how those seasons usually unravel. That said, one game is one game - a single night where the Jets' starter gets hot and Detroit's minus-17 defence has a wobble flips it entirely, and I've lost enough C$ on openers to know the sample size argument cuts both ways. My read: Detroit moneyline at anything near even is defensible, but I'd keep the stake modest and skip the puck line, since neither defence earns a multi-goal trust. StandsGuyFaithful's goalie-stands-on-his-head call is honestly the most honest prediction in the thread. The rest of us are just pricing a coin toss with a slight lean. See you back here after the final buzzer.