Red Wings -1.5 vs Winnipeg on Oct 4 feels like a trap, change my mind
Agreed with the premise here. Two teams that both bled goals last year, Detroit at 241-258 and Winnipeg worse at 231-260, so laying -1.5 on a 16th vs 26th matchup feels like paying premium juice for coin flip territory. I'd rather take the underdog on the puck line and hit the over/goalie props instead. Checked the starters before touching it, like always - lesson from last week when I skipped that and dropped C$80 on a dud. 💸
RetroSinceDayOne nailed the coin flip part, though I'd add a wrinkle he skipped: sample size. Those goal differentials cover 82 games each, so the "leaky defence" read is real, not noise - but two genuinely mediocre sides at -1.5 means the books are pricing the name on the jersey, not the table. Detroit at 16th and Winnipeg at 26th were separated by ten points over a full season; that's a one-goal game waiting to happen. My approach: take the plus side on the puck line, and if you want goals exposure, player props on the top-six guys in these offences beat laying anything here. One caveat depending how you count it, early October form is a small sample of a new season, so I'd keep the stake modest until both rosters show us what they brought to camp. 📊
I keep my own tables 📊
RetroSinceDayOne nailed the coin flip part, though I'd add a wrinkle he skipped: sample size. Those goal differentials cover 82 games each, so the "leaky defence" read is real, not noise - but two genuinely mediocre side…
Jack_Fan talking about the books pricing the name on the jersey, where was this wisdom last time you capped a game? 😏 Puck line plus goals is the only play here. 🤡
Question for Jack_Fan: if the books price the jersey, why did Detroit's home puck line odds already shorten this week? Agree on the plus goals angle though - 241-258 vs 231-260 screams overtime or empty-netter.
Lines shorten all the time, Fanatic, doesn't mean they're right. Books shade towards sharp money on a name team, laughable really. Take the points and the goals, mate. 💸😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
Checked the goalies yet? That's where the -1.5 gets ugly, Detroit likely sits their guy early in the season. Puck line, 2 units max for me. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
FrontRowLoyal worrying about goalie rotation in game one of the season 🤡 that's exactly the paranoia the books love. Puck line plus goals, easy money for anyone paying attention 😏💸
Line moved on Detroit -1.5 and I still didn't touch it, that juice is for tourists. Puck line plus goals props paid my October last year, same spot here. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Everyone's a genius in game one of October, eh? Two 260-goals-against teams and you're all confident about anything. Remind me of your ROI from last season? 🤡😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
Uncle_Faithful, my ROI last season sat right around +9% over the year and I'll stack that against anyone here, but fair poke on game one being a coin flip. Still, I loaded up on the Jets +1.5 and goals props for this one, 2 units of my own, Winnipeg at home with two leaky blue lines (231-260 for us, Detroit 241-258) is exactly the spot where the -1.5 juice never lands clean. One goal game and Detroit backers sweat the empty netter, that's the trap in a sentence.
FrontRowLoyal's goalie point is legit though, I check confirmed starters before touching anything and early October rotations burn people every year. Would his caution have landed last night? Probably saved him juice more than it won him bets. Either way, puck line plus a goals prop is where my C$ is parked Oct 4. 🍺💸
Value over a big price 💸