Would you really lay -1.5 with the Oilers after finishing 14th
Dead last versus 14th with a losing goal record, that's the whole discussion right there. 41-11-30 and a plus-13 is a weird profile, lots of one-goal nights, and one-goal wins are exactly what kills a -1.5 ticket. I track starting goalies before anything else, and whoever's in Vancouver's crease will tell me more about that puck line price than either team's table spot.
That said, 216 for and 316 against is a full-on fire sale of a season. If the market keeps charging a premium on the Oilers name, I'll take my chances on small Canucks +1.5 plays instead of forcing Edmonton juice every night. Lost C$150 chasing a similar "name team lays 1.5" spot last winter and it landed on an empty-netter that went the wrong way, on and forgotten, but I don't repeat that mistake eh. Small stakes, wait for the number to move first.
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
Nobody's saying bet the Canucks, Beth, we're asking if -1.5 on a one-goal-win machine is worth the juice. What do you want to stake on that? 😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
Beth23 nailed the one-goal problem, but dig a bit deeper into that 216-316 split, Vancouver bled a hundred goals more than they scored, and even the plus-13 Oilers side covered -1.5 far less often than the table suggests because so many wins came by a single goal. Small sample though when people cherry-pick head-to-heads; I'd rather see how Edmonton's road games in San Jose and LA open the season before touching that puck line. 📊
I keep my own tables 📊
Millie, fair point, but staking anything real on a -1.5 ticket for a team that won 41 games and still finished 14th sounds like paying a premium for a logo. Beth's right about the profile: plus-13 goal edge across 82 games is a coin-flip margin, and single-goal wins are where puck line tickets go to die.
That said, I'll push back gently on the "Canucks value" angle people keep floating. A 216-316 split means they weren't losing close, they were getting blown out. Blowouts are exactly how the other side covers -1.5. So if anything the juice question works both ways: you're laying a big number on Edmonton while knowing their win distribution is thin, and backing Vancouver means trusting the worst defensive floor in the league to keep games within one. On the 30th I'd rather take the moneyline and skip the chalk entirely, or wait and see if the market overcorrects. Receipts please on anyone claiming Vancouver covered regularly last season, because that goal difference says otherwise.
Where's the proof?
Vancouver's 100-goal differential is a team that quits by the second period, I'd rather pay juice on Edmonton's name than bet a side that lost 49 times. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Laughable that half this thread is talking themselves into the Canucks like their -100 goal diff is some secret edge 😂 HarryBackcheck, quitting by the second period usually means you don't cover +1.5 either, pal. I'll toss a toonie on whoever's side of the puck line, but laying -1.5 with Edmonton on a 14th-place one-goal catalogue? Premium logo tax, plain and simple. 💸
A team that wins 41 times in 82 games usually covers -1.5 more than people think, that's the part nobody's pricing in. Beth's one-goal logic cuts the other way too, if they win a lot of nights by one, some nights they win by three. My rule is simple: I don't touch a total or a puck line until I know who's starting in goal, and if it's the bookie posting a -1.5 that drifts toward even money instead of a heavy favourite price, that's my cue the market already smells a blowout. I got burned last winter laying -1.5 with a team in a similar spot and paid for chasing the juice instead of waiting for the number, so now I either get my price or I sit out with my C$50 and drink a beer. Vancouver covered +1.5 plenty even at 25 wins. Garbage-time goals count the same on the ticket. 😭💸
Value over a big price 💸
FrontRow, sure thing mate, 41 wins and 30 losses, remind me of your ROI on that logic? 😏 Canucks quit but Edmonton barely squeaks by anyone either. 🤡
Show me your ROI first 😏
Uncle_Faithful, that plus-13 goal edge on 41 wins screams empty netters and OT coin flips to me, I've burned money laying -1.5 on teams like that before. Canucks +1.5 it is. 🍺
The line moves — catch it.
Beth_Ultra, "OT coin flips" and empty netters, so in your head a 100-point team just trips into 41 wins, eh? Vancouver scored 216 all season, they couldn't buy a two-goal lead never mind cover anything 🤡 I'd rather torch my C$ on the Oilers -1.5 and blame the refs than talk myself into the worst team in the league as "value" 😏
It's a lottery, not sport.
Beth's got it right, that profile is a losing -1.5 ticket waiting to happen. I track goalies before I touch any line and even a great night in net doesn't fix a team that grinds out 3-2s. Canucks +1.5 at plus money is where my C$ goes, Vancouver's +100 goal diff is brutal but laying -1.5 on a squad that needed bounce-after-bounce for 41 wins? Would that have landed last year for you? Didn't for me. 💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
Beth_Ultra burned money laying -1.5 on coin flip teams, and now she's taking the worst team in the league +1.5 like that's the fix 😂 wait for the fanboys to pile in on "value" 🤡💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
StandsGuyUltra, take Vancouver +1.5 all you want, but I've cashed plenty of tickets against 100-point-bad teams — that -100 goal diff means every single game is a coin toss where Edmonton can win by 3 without trying. My rule: check the goalie first, and laying -1.5 with a confirmed starter in net on Sep 30 is the play I'm pricing. Cost me 150 C$ last season skipping a line like this waiting for "value" that never landed. 💸
The line moves — catch it.
Been on the wrong side of a plus-13 profile before, that's the lesson from last season for me, cashed maybe a third of my Oilers -1.5 tickets and it ate the bankroll quietly. Thirty one-goal wins screams puck line poison, so my C$ stays off it Sept 30; small play on Vancouver +1.5 if the price holds near even, and even that's a lean, not a conviction. 💸
Bankroll discipline wins.