Red Wings host the Senators on October 6
Making coffee and flipping through last year's table, first thing that jumps out: Ottawa finished 9th with 99 points and a healthy 278-246 goal record, while Detroit sat 16th on 92 points and leaked 258 against. On paper the Senators moneyline is the side, but the opener in Detroit always carries a bit of bounce-back noise, so I'd want to see the price before committing anything from the bankroll. Small sample though - one game in October, and both squads have a busy stretch after (Detroit hits Montréal on the 10th, Ottawa visits New Jersey on the 12th). 📊
Honestly, that little corner of the original six versus the old expansion club always felt like family arguing at christmas dinner 😄 back when I first had season tickets, detroit-ottawa nights were the loudest in the building, those senators teams used to come into town with a chip on their shoulder and everybody knew it.
On the pick: Jack's got it right, I think. The table gap is real, but openers are wild - I've watched enough first games of the season where the "better" team sleeps through twenty minutes and it's over by the second intermission. I'd take ottawa only at a plus price, straight up or with the puck line if the juice is friendly. Detroit at home on the 6th will have the crowd behind them, and home ice still counts for something, whatever the analytics fellas say. Small stake, no heroics - that's how us old fellas stay in the game 😉
Heart says we flip the script on opening night 🔥 our guys better come out flying at LCA. But yeah, 258 goals against scares me tbh… throw a few bucks on the Sens plus odds, ah well, nowt to do 🤷♂️💪
One love, one side ❤️
278-246 vs 258 against? Sens moneyline all day if the bookie gives plus odds, but I'd hedge with Detroit +1.5 on the puck line. Openers are coin flips. 🍺
Bankroll discipline wins.
I keep two columns in my spreadsheet for these: season-long goal differential and fresh-season variance, and they rarely agree on openers 📊 Ottawa's 278-246 is the honest number over 82 games, but Detroit's 258 against was dragged down by stretches nobody remembers; on a single night at home, the puck line is where I'd look, not a flat Sens moneyline. Depends how you count it. I'd take a small C$ position on the Red Wings +1.5 and wait to see the opener before trusting either club's underlying stats.
Do the math before you argue.
On paper Ottawa deserves the lean — 32-goal differential gap over 82 games is real. But openers? I've watched enough October hockey at the arena to know a coin flip when I see one.
I keep my own tables 📊