Leafs missed playoffs at 78 points yet you're backing them vs Ottawa
Can't get behind Leafs puck line on Oct 3, simple as that. A team that finished 28th with 78 points and a 253-299 goal diff getting my money against a Sens side that went 44-27 and sat 9th? That's paying for nostalgia. Last season taught me the hard way, I dropped C$150 chasing Toronto moneylines in March because "they're due", and every one of them didn't land. Lesson logged.
My play that night is Ottawa on the puck line if the price is anywhere near reasonable, and their team shots/points props over anything Toronto offers. The goal differential alone (278-246 vs 253-299) tells you which roster generates offence and which one leaks it. Only thing that'd flip me is confirmation of the starting goalies day-of, if Ottawa rests theirs and Toronto ices a legit starter, maybe the +1.5 becomes live. Until then I'm not touching it. You only live once, but my bankroll doesn't. 💸
Retro nailed the table logic, but one nuance: puck line at plus-money on Oct 3 is partly a season-opener discount - week one samples are tiny and lines lag summer roster churn, so 78 points from last year overstates the gap. My spreadsheet still has Ottawa's 278-246 differential worth more than a goal here, though; I'd rather take Sens shots props than touch Toronto's side of it. Small sample caveat applies until we see actual lineups that night.
I keep my own tables 📊
"Lines lag roster churn" is a fancy way of saying you're hoping the book's asleep, mate. 46-point gap doesn't shrink by October 3. Take the Sens shots prop, save your C$ 🤡💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
Sens side for me too. I check the starter before anything and whoever's in Ottawa's net, that's my play. Loaded up a small C$ bet on their team points last season, it landed. Leafs puck line? On and forgotten 💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
Love how everyone suddenly becomes a Sens scholar after one good season 😏 Jack's right though, week one lines are a lottery — but yeah, I'm still not touching that puck line with my C$.
Been burned by week one lines before. Last opening night I chased a "rebuild team +1.5" and it didn't land inside ten minutes, C$ gone 😭 The 253-299 diff is the part that scares me most, that's not a goalie fix, that's structural. Sens points prop at a modest stake, wait for the starter confirmation, that's my whole position on Oct 3.
Value over a big price 💸
Ben, last season I chased a "sure thing" too and my C$ vanished quicker than a Saskatoon summer 😂 Half of you worshipped this same Sens core when they were nobody two years back. Remind me of your ROI before we crown them, Beth? 🤡
Show me your ROI first 😏
Lost money on opening night puck lines more times than I'll admit, last year I threw C$50 at a season opener +1.5 that died in the first period, lesson learned 💀. That said, Uncle_Faithful has half a point about early lines being a coin flip, but the Sens' 278-246 diff vs Toronto's 253-299 says Ottawa earned that 9th spot, so I'm on their team points on Oct 3, small stake, no hero bets. Leaf moneyline might sneak in if the starter matchup shakes out right, but puck line against that defence? Not touching it.
The line moves — catch it.
Uncle_Faithful asking for ROI records is rich, mate 😂 your "sure thing" lost faster than anyone's here. Sens 278 goals vs that Leafs diff - you're paying nostalgia tax on Oct 3 💸
It's a lottery, not sport.
First thing I check before any opener bet is who's in the nets, and nobody in this thread has mentioned a confirmed starter yet. That 253-299 diff scares me less than paying puck line juice on a 28th-place side against a Sens team that put up 278 goals. My C$ sits on Ottawa moneyline, value over a big price 💸
Value over a big price 💸
So FrontRowLoyal suddenly becomes a goalie scout the second he needs an excuse, eh? Nobody's confirmed a starter on October 3, that cuts both ways genius 😏. And Emma crowning the Sens off one table row. Wait for the fanboys to pile in when that 278-246 diff meets opening-night chaos. Put your C$ where the points are or stop typing 💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
StandsGuy has a point about no confirmed goalies cutting both ways, but that's exactly why I'd rather be on Ottawa's moneyline than any Leafs prop, you're getting the better team at a price that hasn't been shaded yet. I got burned last season fading a bad puck line in a season opener and it died in an empty-netter, so I keep it simple now: bankroll goes to the side with the 278 goals, wait on the starters before touching the total 💸
Value over a big price 💸
With you, Harry, Sens ML is the only play that makes sense to me. I'd need +odds on the Leafs puck line and a confirmed starter before touching a single loonie there. 💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.