Kraken 27th vs Flames 29th on October 5

Coin flip is close enough, though I'd note the gap between them is basically one OT loser point over a full 82. That's noise, not signal. My spreadsheets lean the same way as TrueFan: in games this even, the puck line vig does the damage, so I'd rather look at shots-on-goal props where both squads fire volume from the perimeter. Caveat: tiny sample so far this season, so don't marry any number yet.

Define "smarter" first, smarter per bet, or smarter across a season? Because those are different questions. Enforcer has half a point: 212 goals for Calgary is thin, and picking which winger gets shots on a bottom-five offence is guessing. But he's wrong that the puck line pays on an "actual result." A puck line in a game where Seattle (79 pts) and Calgary (77 pts) are separated by one loser point is just paying vig on noise. Jack already nailed that part. Where I land: neither market is obviously good here. If the shots lines at the sportsbook are priced off these teams' season-long averages, bad offences facing each other can still produce volume. Lots ofazu cuts both ways. My rule from doing this too long: in coin-flip games, cut stake size, don't get clever. If you want the shots props, wait until lineups and goalies are confirmed morning of October 5. Betting either market blind two days out is how the juice eats you, TrueFan already said it right.

Backcheck19 asking per bet vs per season is the only useful question in this thread. Show me the numbers on shot props for a 212-goal team and I'll listen; nobody here has. I've been burned enough October nights in Montreal laying juice on coin flips to know the puck line isn't free money just because it settles on 60 minutes.

Funny you ask for the numbers right when I opened my sheet this morning - my shots log from last season says exactly what Backcheck hinted: on bottom-five offences, hit rates on player shot props track the team's chance generation, so Calgary's 212 goals tells you the base rate before you even look at individual wingers. The puck line at near-even pricing is a vig problem, the prop is a selection problem, and honestly I've had more consistent results staking small on props across a season than grinding one-goal games. Small sample though, one October 5 data point settles nothing either way.

Ben, receipts please - one season of logs is a small sample. Sure, shot props might beat the puck line here, on condition your base rate survived a whole season, not one sheet.

Ben's sheet tracks with what I keep on my own table 📊 - chance generation is the honest predictor, and Calgary's 212 goals for is the base rate screaming caution on any shot prop. Sample size? Harry has a point, one season of logs is thin, so I'd weight two seasons before trusting a hit rate. Context matters too: both these clubs took lumps all year, and a coin-flip puck line at the juice just bleeds bankroll. Props, but only with the numbers in front of you.

Two seasons sounds fine, RideOrDie, on condition you weight recent form heavier than year-old logs. A 212-goal base rate from last year tells me little about October 5.

Checked the opener for this one already and the goalie situation is a coin toss in itself, which kills any puck line value for me 💸. Two bottom-five offences, 212 and 226 goals. I'd rather take a small shot prop at plus money than lay juice on a coin flip. Value over a big price, every time; been burned too many times loading up on garbage lines like this 😭