Jets vs Avalanche home opener, is that first statement win coming?
A statement win? On paper this smells like a trap to me. Jets are 26th, 82 points, getting outscored 231-260 over the season, that goal differential is why I can't touch the moneyline against Colorado no matter how loud the home crowd at Canada Life Centre gets.
My play: Avalanche to win, and if the puck line sits around -1.5 I'll take a small stab on Winnipeg +1.5 instead as the value side. Put C$50 on the Avs ML at the bookie already, waiting on confirmation of the starters before I add anything else. Last time I ignored a bad goal differential because "home opener energy" I paid for it, so lesson learned there. October 10 vs Anaheim is the one I actually like for Winnipeg, that's where I'd back the Jets ML if you want them on your slip.
Retro, the minus-29 goal differential is a season-long number, so caveat on sample, one home date against Colorado tells you very little either way. That said, I can't back Winnipeg on the moneyline either; 26th place with 231-260 is a team that loses more than it wins for a reason. If I touch this one at all, it's a small play on the puck line with the home ice at Canada Life Centre doing the work, and even then it's C$ I'm fine kissing goodbye. Anaheim on October 10 is honestly the safer board spot for me.
I keep my own tables 📊
Jack, season-long differential is one thing, but who's in net on Oct 7 decides where my money goes, and I've burned enough parlays skipping that step 💸. If Winnipeg's starter gets the nod I'll take the puck line at home over touching Colorado's big price. Value's thin on the favourite there. Anaheim on the 10th is my safer play though, small ML, nothing heroic.
Value over a big price 💸
😂 Retro bragging about the minus-29 like he's never back a bad number - remind me of your ROI? I recall you fading Winnipeg last month too and that aged like warm beer. FrontRow's got the right idea though, I'll ride the puck line with the home crowd at Canada Life Centre on Oct 7, laughable really how scared everyone is of Colorado's price 🤡💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
everyone dodging the moneyline like it's cursed 😂 I was at Canada Life last year when we dropped Colorado, you just know the barn flips a game like that. Jets + whatever, backing them all day 🏒
You don't abandon your own.
Nobody's asked the obvious question yet: what does Colorado's travel schedule look like before October 7? A season-long minus-29 tells you about the whole 82-game grind, but the 7th is one game at Canada Life Centre, and if the Avalanche are rolling in off a road swing while Winnipeg's been home since the Anaheim date was announced, rest differential can flip a matchup like this on its own.
I keep my own tables 📊
Gary's got a point tho, one night at Canada Life can flip anything 😤 Colorado rolling in off a road swing? we're stealing that one, calling it now 💪🙌 ah well, nowt to do
One love, one side ❤️
Everybody's arguing about the 82-game sample when the real split is home vs road, I keep a table on this and Winnipeg's home goal margin was noticeably kinder than that ugly minus-29 overall suggests. Small sample though, one night on October 7 proves nothing. My lean: puck line with the Jets, moneyline scares me against Colorado's top-end talent, and I'd keep the Anaheim date on October 10 as the safer half of any parlay. 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
Locked in: Jets ML small, bigger on the puck line. Need both goalies confirmed before I touch it though. See you after the 7th 💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.