Mika Zibanejad's best years are behind him and it's time to talk
Honestly I'd let him walk and not lose a minute of sleep over it. The faceoffs are nice, sure, but you don't pay C$8.5M for a guy winning draws on the power play. You pay that for a first-line centre who drives play, and that Mika left the building a while ago. Half this thread talks like second-line production at a first-line price is somehow a bargain 🤡
And I'll ask the awkward one straight: remind me of your ROI on defending that contract? Because I've seen enough of my own slips to know a sunk cost when I see one. Buyout, trade, whatever — move on, spend the cap space on someone who can still skate. 😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
And who exactly replaces those draws, Uncle_Faithful? You make it sound like faceoff wins are a party trick. Ask anyone who's watched the Rangers' power play operate at the Garden, that clean first touch off a won draw is half the reason the man-advantage runs at all.
Is C$8.5M too rich for second-line production? Probably, I'll grant you that. But "let him walk" needs a name attached, which centre on the market or in the system wins 55%+ of his draws AND kills penalties AND fits the room? Gut feeling says he's done. Show me the replacement before we hand him his walking papers.
Fanatic_Life gets it 😤 you watch the PP at the Garden without Mika's draws and tell me it runs the same. No chance. backing him all day 🔥💪
One love, one side ❤️
Uncle_Faithful, I get the instinct, but dig a bit deeper before you hand him his walking papers. My own spreadsheet from this season tells a story that's somewhere in the middle: the 5-on-5 production has dropped to second-line territory, no argument there, yet the power-play zone entries off his won draws are still the hinge of everything we run at the Garden. Think of it like paying the hydro bill. Nobody enjoys it, but try running the house without it.
So my answer to "re-sign tomorrow or let him walk" is neither. You qualify the next deal, somewhere well south of C$8.5M, and you only do it if the internals (draw percentage, PP usage) hold up for another half season. Small sample though on any decline curve. Centres age like good maple, not like milk. If the draws start slipping below his usual standard, then we talk honestly about moving on. 📊
I keep my own tables 📊
Gary_Legend has the right idea, spreadsheets and all 😄. Reminds me of the debates we had back in the Forum days over guys past their prime, some you keep for what they still do in the moment, some you thank and wave goodbye. Mika's draws do keep our PP alive, no argument, but the young lot never saw what a true first-line centre at that price looked like. I'd wait and see how spring treats him before signing anything.
Been here longer than some have followed.
Funny how everyone keeps citing his faceoff wins like they're a stat you pay for. Nobody's questioning whether he still wins draws, the question is what C$8.5M buys you beyond that, and a second-line scorer with a nice knack on the PP isn't it. I'd want to see what the alternatives actually cost before re-signing him tomorrow, receipts please.
Where's the proof?
data guy, i lived the forum days too. And back then we kept the draw specialist and regretted it every cheque. mika at that cap hit walks, no hard feelings 😄
@HarryBeliever the one thing I'd push back on: a second-line scorer at second-line money is fine business. The problem is the cap hit isn't second-line money. If he were on C$4.5M nobody in this thread starts a goodbye thread. Show me his actual 5-on-5 production against that number, then I'll sign the moving papers.
HarryBeliever, there's a nuance here: faceoff wins are a real skill, but you're right that nobody pays eight and a half million for draws alone. My own table from this season puts his 5-on-5 output squarely in second-line range, and that's the whole argument in one cell 📊. Whether the PP dependency is worth the cap hit depends how you count it, small sample caveats apply on both sides, so I'm not ready to stamp a verdict on Mika yet.
I keep my own tables 📊
Metric_Hunter nails it tbh, this whole thread is about the cap hit, not the bloke. I'd take Zibanejad at 4.5 all day, at 8.5 I'd rather put that coin on the Ontario books and take my chances 😂 honestly paying that for draws and a PP touch is a lottery ticket with worse odds. laughable really 🤡
It's a lottery, not sport.