Jets at 26th with 231 goals for and 260 against
Colorado on Oct 7 is the one I'd dodge at the sportsbook, big price, no value there. Trust Anaheim on Oct 10 the most: home ice at Canada Life Centre, fair moneyline, and I'd look at the puck line rather than juicing a total on a team that gave up 260 goals last year. My C$50 goes on the Jets -1.5 that night.
Value over a big price 💸
FrontRowLoyal, the Anaheim pick has some support in the sample, 260 goals against over 82 games is a shade over 3.2 per night, so -1 on the puck line carries real risk even against a softer opponent. I'd rather take Anaheim straight up on the moneyline at Canada Life Centre and treat October 14 against Minnesota the same way; with a 26th-place team, one-goal margins are coin flips, and my spreadsheet says keep stakes flat, maybe C$25-30 a play until we see how the opening weeks look. 📊
I keep my own tables 📊
Fair math on the GA number, Jack, but -1 against Anaheim still feels thin to me - I'm looking at Minnesota on Oct 14 instead: divisional tilt, tighter game likely to land on the ML side anyway. Question though: what happens between the pipes decides more than the schedule, and nobody's confirmed starters yet. If the back door stays shut on their netminder, maybe both tickets cash 🍺
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
FrontRowLoyal -1 on Anaheim? Mate, you tanked that same play last spring too 🤡 FaithfulFan63's Minnesota ML is the only sane pick here, sure thing.
Show me your ROI first 😏
FaithfulFan63 has it right, I reckon. Wild visits are usually one-goal scrapes, I keep my ledger on those going back years, ML just grades cleaner than the puck line. Small sample though, it's game three of the season.
"Sure thing" from Millie made me chuckle... there's no sure thing in October hockey 😱 Two home games in three nights (Anaheim Oct 10 then Minnesota Oct 14) and everyone's acting like the Wild ML is a bank deposit. 3.2 against a night, we're backing them all day anyway, but I'm splitting my stake: Anaheim on the moneyline, tiny nibble on Minnesota. Colorado Oct 7? Nope, paying for a beating 🔥🤬
UpsetKing has a point about fatigue, but my ledger says divisional tilts tighten: Minnesota stays within one goal far more often, so the ML there carries less variance than Anaheim's puck line. 📊
Do the math before you argue.
Anaheim makes the most sense to me: bad defensive sides leak chances early, and a 260-against team hosting a rebuild defence at Canada Life Centre is where you pay fair money. Colorado? Price alone kills it. 📊
I keep my own tables 📊
Trust none of ya 😱 everyone crowning Anaheim like we didn't give up 260 goals last season. Gary says bad defences leak chances early, yeah, whose? OURS, buddy. We're the leaky one 🤬
Colorado on the 7th I'd honestly leave alone too, price is gonna be ugly and they'll cook us. If I put a toonie anywhere it's Minnesota on the 14th, divisional games always tighter, RideOrDieZone is the only one making sense in here. Anaheim puck line? On 260 goals against? Bold, I'll give ya that. Ah well, nowt to do 🔥
One love, one side ❤️
StandsGuyFaithful actually nails the counterargument and I want to run with it. The 260 against cuts both ways. My table says when a side bleeds goals from the year before, game-to-game totals swing more than moneylines do, so I'd trust the Minnesota date on October 14 over Anaheim precisely because of the leak, not despite it. Divisional games at Canada Life Centre historically stay tight, and if our defence is still leaking in October, both teams score, which makes a total or a both-teams-flavour prop far friendlier than laying juice on the ML against a Wild side that will happily sit back. Anaheim on the 10th? Fair price, sure, but rebuild opponents are exactly where books shade the line against casual money. One caveat before anyone runs to the bookie: five games is a tiny sample and October openers misbehave, so I'm sizing down, maybe half a unit, and treating Colorado on the 7th as a watch-only game like most of you already said 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
Zoe's got a point on the totals, but I'll lock two bets and forget the rest: small on the Jets puck line vs Anaheim Oct 10, and Minnesota Oct 14 over leaning on that 260 against. Colorado I'm leaving alone, price will be ugly. See you after the match 💸
Bankroll discipline wins.