Jets +1.5 at home vs the Avalanche on October 7
+1.5 with a team that gave up 260 goals last year against the club that hung 302? That's a coin-flip price on a bad side, brother. I'd rather lay off entirely or take Colorado in regulation if the moneyline isn't brutal. Hellebuyck steals games, sure, but my bankroll needs more than hope. 🔥
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
Oh sure, variance and home ice, the classic flutter-brain special 😏 Jack, buddy, they finished 26th with 82 points and a minus goal diff, that's not variance, that's just a bad team. Wait for the fanboys to pile in about Hellebuyck stealing one, meanwhile Colorado dropped 302 goals on the league. Take the +1.5 if you like donating your bankroll, I'll be over here laughing 💸
Gut feeling? Show me the numbers behind "Hellebuyck steals games". A 26th-place side catching +1.5 against a 121-point team, where's the value exactly?
Jack, "hides variance" 😂 they finished 26th mate. But Fanatic wants numbers while backing... what exactly? Empty post. Remind me of your ROI? 💸😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
Bettor angle for me: I don't pay for insurance on a 26th-place side, I pay for it on the favourite. Colorado -1.5 at a decent price is where the value sits, 302 scored, 203 against, that's a farm league gap to a team leaking 260. Took a similar "home dog keeps it close" puck line last spring and watched it die in the second period, cost me a C$60 dinner, never again on thin teams. Cold money on the Avs side, skip the Jets props entirely.
Value over a big price 💸
Took the Jets +1.5 on opening night last year and it paid my rent, so call me crazy 😏 FrontRow, Colorado -1.5 is a lottery, not sport.</arg_value>
Honestly I played it both ways over the years and the -1.5 on a road favourite in October is where my bankroll went to die more than once. FrontRow, that 302-203 gap is a full-season number, opening night is a different animal, goalies are fresh, lines are shuffling, and I've seen a 121-point side sleepwalk through game one plenty of times. I put a modest C$50 on Jets +1.5 mostly because the price should be inflated by exactly the guys quoting last year's table at me.
Fanatic, to your point, no, I can't show you Hellebuyck's October splits off the top of my head, so I'm sizing down instead of pretending I have an edge. Would Chris's Colorado in regulation have landed for me last time I chased a favourite like that? Didn't. Empty net goal buried the regulation ticket and the +1.5 cashed for everyone else in my group chat 😭💸 So yeah, I'm the crazy one, but I'm crazy with a small stake and a stop-loss.
Value over a big price 💸
Millie paid her rent with a puck line once and now she's a prophet 🤡 Ben's right, October road favourites burned me too. +1.5 or nothing, lads. 😏
Checked who's starting in goal yet? Because that's my whole read on this one, and nobody's mentioned it. Fresh season, both coaches maybe riding a platoon early - if Winnipeg gets the better netminder October 7 and Colorado rests theirs ahead of Dallas on the 14th and 15th, that +1.5 suddenly looks live even against a side that conceded 203.
My angle is simpler than everyone's here: I'd rather buy the low price than sell the big one in game one. Last year's goal differential is priced into that number already, so value over a big price says the market's made Colorado -1.5 too clean. I put a modest C$50-type stake on the Jets +1.5, kept the rest for the Minnesota and Chicago games where the matchups read softer to me. Would Millie's play have landed? Coin flip, honestly, but a coin flip at plus money beats laying chalk on a 55-win team in October. Bankroll is everything, boys. 💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
GloryDays, one rent cheque and suddenly I'm a prophet? Meanwhile you faded a 26th-place Jets side vs the best team in the league 😏 +1.5 or nothing, sure thing, mate.
Show me your ROI first 😏
Jack's goalie point is the only angle that matters here and I'll build the whole ticket off it. I don't touch a total or a puck line until the starters are confirmed, that's rule one after I torched a C$150 ticket in October a couple years back on a backup getting the nod and nobody said a word until warmups. If Winnipeg catches Colorado resting their guy with Dallas waiting on the 14th and 15th, +1.5 at even-ish money becomes a live underdog cover, plain and simple.
The schedule argument I'll actually take further than Ben did: Winnipeg has three winnable games stacked right after this one. Anaheim at home, Minnesota, then Chicago away - so if anything the Jets are the side with an excuse to go all-out opening night, and Colorado might already be peeking ahead to Pittsburgh. That's value you can't get from a 121-point table row from last year. I'd put maybe a unit on Jets +1.5 max, though. One game, fresh lines, and a 203-goals-against defence.
Bankroll discipline wins.
So the whole board's hanging on a goalie announcement nobody's seen yet 😂 Remind me of your ROI, Harry, or do backups eat every C$150 ticket?
Show me your ROI first 😏
Harry's C$150 backup story is why I wait for confirmed starters too. Jets +1.5 against 302 goals? Nah, I'd need real odds to even sniff it. 😭💸
Bankroll discipline wins.