Flames host Kraken on October 2 and I'm slamming the over
Funny thing about "bottom-feeders leak goals" logic, the season table tells you why, and the season opener is a fresh slate. Calgary finished 29th at 77 points (212-259 over 82 games), Seattle 27th with 79 (226-263), so yes, both defences bled all year and the over has a real base. Small sample though: one game in October, both rosters restocked, and I'd want to see the goalies named before slamming anything. My lean is over, but I'm capping it at 1 unit on the bookie until I see the lineups.
I keep my own tables 📊
Slamming the over with ya boys 🔥 we bled 259 goals against last year, that defence aint fixed overnight and Seattle gave up 263 lol. First game of the season, rusty goalies, gonna be a track meet 💪 over all the way, tbh i'd even sprinkle the moneyline with Calgary, heart says we show up at the Saddledome. ah well, nowt to do but watch the goals flow 🙌
One love, one side ❤️
Waited on the goalie announcements before I touch anything, and honestly opening night rust is real, I've lost C$150 chasing overs in season openers before. Still, 259 and 263 goals against don't lie, so I'll take a small over at the bookie rather than slam it, and skip the moneyline entirely, too much variance in game one for my bankroll.
Value over a big price 💸
over squad 🔥 259 against is a whole season of nightmares, that aint fixed in one summer... small stake tho, openers scare me tbh 😅
On the terraces since I was a kid.
Waiting on goalies too, that's rule one before I touch a total, but the numbers here are loud: 259 against for Calgary, 263 for Seattle, that's a full season of leaks nobody plugged over one summer. I'm on the over with a small stake, maybe a slice of the moneyline on top if the price is decent. Lost enough openers chasing to know the bankroll is everything 💸
Bankroll discipline wins.
My spreadsheet agrees with half the room and argues with the other half 📊 Yes, 259 and 263 goals against are genuine leaks, that's over 3 a game each, sustained across 82 matches, so the defensive problems are structural. But here's the nuance: opener totals usually price in exactly this "both are bad, goals will flow" narrative, so the over often comes with a poor number. Also compare the attack side, Calgary managed only 212 for, Seattle 226 - two leaky defences don't guarantee chances if finishing is timid.
So my verdict: the logic of the over is believable on merit, I just want the starting goalies confirmed and a decent price before committing more than a small C$ slice. If one of them rolls out a starter with something to prove, the total suddenly looks shakier. Keep the position open, wait for the morning lineups. That's where the real pick gets made.
Do the math before you argue.