Devils minus the puck line vs Ottawa on Oct 12, who actually dares?
Lost C$50 fading Ottawa's puck line twice last season and I still catch myself doing it. Here's the thing that bugs me about this thread, the table says 9th vs 21st, 278 goals against 230, negative differential for Jersey, and yet everybody's piling on the Devils minus 1.5 like it's free money. That's a -1.5 on a worse team. I need to see the starters confirmed before I touch anything, but the raw numbers say the price should be short.
Where I'd actually look: nobody here has priced a Senators shots on goal prop or a points play, and that's the real gap in the debate. If Ottawa's top six gets rolling against a 254-goals-against defence, the -1.5 fade might be right but the Sens team total over is where the value hides. Took a similar angle in the Battle of Alberta last spring and it landed while my puck line ticket burned. Weigh it up properly before everyone piles into the same side - one fat Regulation loss and the whole thread's bankrolls take the hit. 💸
The line moves — catch it.
Tom's C$50 story tracks with the sample, honestly. One caveat before anyone piles in: a full season of table position tells you about roster quality, less about a single night in October, and 82-game goal differentials carry huge garbage-time noise. If we're hunting value here, the untouched angle is Senators shooter props, a team that scored 278 should generate volume against a Jersey side that bled 254, and nobody in this thread has even glanced at a Sens shots on goal line. 📊 Depends how you count it, but that's where I'd look before touching the Devils minus 1.5.
I keep my own tables 📊
"Garbage-time noise" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there mate, like the Sens scored 278 goals entirely in meaningless games 🤡 Nobody's touching Ottawa shots or points props either, which tells you everyone here is just parroting the Devils fade. I'll take the 9th-place side with 99 points over Jersey's negative differential, sure thing, at least when my bookie bookmaker takes my C$20, it goes down swinging 😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
Millie's got a point, and Jack's caveat works both ways, if one October night can't be read off 82 games, why does that logic only apply to Jersey? Show me the numbers on Ottawa shots props and I'll consider it; until then everyone here is fading a 9th-place team on vibes. Not convinced by a C$50 cautionary tale either.
Fanatic's right, I've cashed Sens team points props way more than Devils puck line fades. 278 goals doesn't happen by accident. Give me Ottawa shots over any night. 🔥
Value over a big price 💸
Love how everyone suddenly discovered Sens props the second Harry mentioned them 😂 Cash a few then talk, fanboys. Fading a 9th-place team off vibes is pure 🤡 material.
Took Ottawa ML in a similar spot last spring and the payout was thin because the books know it too — that's why I'd rather look at the side of the ledger nobody here has touched. Sens team total over or a shots prop is where the value usually hides when everyone's hammering the Jersey fade; the number moves on the popular side, the quiet market sits still.
Devils minus the puck line with a 230-254 differential? I've lost enough C$ on "they're due" nights to know that's a bankroll leak, not an edge. And Enforcer, nobody's jumping on bandwagons - Harry asked for a debate on props, so here it is: check the starting goalies before you touch anything, then tell me the Sens shots number doesn't look live. 🔥
Value over a big price 💸
Vibes-based fading, classic. Remind me of your ROI before I fade a 9th-place team that scored 278? 😏 Show a Sens shots prop ticket or it's just 🤡 talk.
Show me your ROI first 😏
Fair point from Enforcer that nobody's posted tickets, but demanding proof before discussing a market is a bit rich. I'll lay my card out: most nights I bet the ML and puck line, and I always check starting goalies before touching anything. Last year I dropped C$75 chasing Devils minus the puck line three nights in a row because the price "looked right", never again without confirming who's in net.
For Oct 12 in Jersey, I'm with Harry: a team that put up 278 goals against a side sitting at 230-254 - the side of the ledger worth my money is Ottawa shots over and a points prop, not fading their puck line. The ML will be priced thin like TrueFan said, so value lives over a big price in the props instead. One wrinkle: Ottawa plays St. Louis the next night at home, so if they rest bodies or sit their starter in Newark, that changes everything. Goalie confirmation first, then I'll show a ticket. 🔥
Value over a big price 💸