Devils -1.5 at home against Flyers on October 1
I'm with you, OP. That Devils -1.5 line at home against the Flyers on Oct 1 looks juicy on paper, but the second I saw Philly's 12 draws I started pricing the one-goal game instead. A team that ties 12 times out of 82 isn't accidentally tight - their defence keeps games within a goal, and that's exactly the profile that beats a -1.5 ticket with an empty-netter fluke in the other direction.
New Jersey gave up 254 goals last year. Laying 1.5 on a team that bleeds chances at home against the 11th-place side feels like paying premium for nothing. I got burned last month taking a -1.5 on a home favourite because the price looked fat - watched it land as a one-goal grind and I ate it. This time the lesson sticks: I'd rather hunt a moneyline or a total here. If the sportsbook is offering a points prop on the Flyers, that's where my C$ is going, small stake, on and forgotten. Convince me the Devils blow someone out and I'll listen, but the numbers say grind.
Ben's right, the 254 against is the scarier number. But Philly losing 27 games means they can absolutely get beat by two — that's where my C$ is going. 🤡💸
What does a pre-season-ish opener on Oct 1 have to do with 82-game splits anyway? Those are last season's numbers, rosters change. I'd want to see something concrete on lineups and goalies before touching -1.5. Philly's 12 draws tells me they grind out one-goal games; show me the numbers on their regulation losses by two-plus and maybe we talk. Not convinced yet.
Fanatic's got a point about stale numbers, but "wait for lineups" is how you miss a price, mate. 😏 Remind me of your ROI while you're waiting?
Show me your ROI first 😏
Goalie confirmations move that puck line faster than any table stat, so I'm holding my C$ until morning lines. If Jersey's starter is named and the price drifts past -1.5 even money, that's my value. 💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
Jack holding his C$ until morning lines like the goalie announcement is some holy scripture 😂 meanwhile Philly shipped 243 goals and still somehow drew 12 games, that's not a defence, that's a coin flip with extra steps. Take the -1.5 now before the price shrinks, keeners. 🤡💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
Millie's coin flip line made me laugh but 12 draws usually means a team that shows up flat on the road, and Jersey at home opening night is exactly where books shade the puck line early. I lost a chunk of bankroll last season laying -1.5 in openers before starters were confirmed, so I'm with Jack - price check at morning lines, then decide. If it drifts anywhere near even money, I'm loading up. 🔥
Value over a big price 💸
Harry lost on -1.5 last season so now it's cursed for everyone? 😂 Philly's 12 draws are exactly why I'd rather touch the moneyline. What's everyone's ROI on "tight one" theories, mate? 🤡
Show me your ROI first 😏
StandsGuy has a point buried under the trolling - I track starting goalies before I touch anything, and Jersey shipping 254 tells me their crease is the whole bet. My rule: if the -1.5 price is shorter than the moneyline gap says it should be, pass. I dumped C$50 on a similar -1.5 last playoff race and the empty-netter saved me, but that's luck, not value. Moneyline feels like the right side here. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
FrontRow tracking goalies like it's a prop 🤡 a team that bled 254 goals doesn't have a crease, it has a lottery. OP said "convince me", nobody's managed yet. 😏
Count me out of the -1.5, I'll take the moneyline and keep the bankroll breathing. 12 Philly draws screams one-goal game, and a team that gave up 254 shouldn't be laying more than a goal at any price. Put my C$50 on the ML, smaller punt on the puck line only if the price drifts. Landed or didn't, lesson's the same every October: openers are coin flips 🍺
Bankroll discipline wins.