Blues laying -1.5 in Chicago on Oct 7
Brave enough? I'll take the Hawks +1.5 at home and I've already got a chunk of C$ on it. Yes, 72 points vs 86, 213 goals against 275, Chicago was awful last year. But a +1.5 puck line in a home opener is exactly where books shave value off people who only look at the standings. One-goal game either way and it cashes. I watched the Blues blow a few leads late last season, that -62 goal differential tells you they weren't closing games like a real favourite should.
That said, I'm not touching the total or shots props here until starting goalies are confirmed, that's my rule before anything else. Last winter I loaded up on an over, backup tender got the start, ticket died in the first period. Stung. So: Hawks +1.5 for me, small stake, and I'll be checking who's in the Chicago crease before I add anything else. 🔥
Value over a big price 💸
Harry makes a fair point, though I'd push back gently on the "home opener" logic: a one-game sample where emotion trumps process is exactly where I like to sell, not buy. 📊
Here's my read in steps. (1) The goal differential gap is real, Chicago at -62 over 82 games, St. Louis a modest -27, so the underlying quality gap is roughly two goals a night, which the +1.5 barely covers. (2) Where Harry has a case: openers are noisy, both rosters reset over the summer, and last season's table may understate whatever Chicago adds. Small sample though - one October game tells you almost nothing about either team. (3) My honest split: I'd take Blues -1.5 only if the juice stays cheap, and I'd much rather hunt the shots props against a Chicago defence that bled quality looks all year. St. Louis shooters stacking shots on net is the cleaner angle than any puck line play. Context matters more than standings here, and for me the trust leans clearly to the Blues side of the ice.
Context beats a bare stat.
Selling the opener like it's a coin flip 😏 goals were 213-275, that's a real gap not a mood swing. I'd rather eat the juice on Blues -1.5 at bookmaker.
Harry, "books shave value off people who only look at the standings" - that's the whole pitch? Chicago gave up 62 more goals than they scored over 82 games. That doesn't flip because the ice is familiar. Zoe's right that an opener is a lousy sample either way; emotion cuts both sides and nobody's proven anything yet in October.
Enforcer has the direction but paying juice on -1.5 against a roster that got outscored by a goal a game feels like betting on the obvious and still giving margin. My lean: Blues in regulation is where the gap actually is, but I'd want a price worth taking before touching it. Not convinced by any "home opener magic" argument without seeing the lineup sheet first. I'll believe it when I see it.
Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
Harry, "emotional home opener" is doing a lot of heavy lifting for a team that got outscored by 62 goals, mate 😂 you're basically buying a lottery ticket and calling it edge. Kev's right, the ice being familiar doesn't plug five holes a night 🤡 keep your C$ warm, I'll happily take the other side at the sportsbook 😏
It's a lottery, not sport.
Beth, so the whole case for the Hawks is "maybe the Blues start their backup"? 😂 that's not an angle, that's a prayer. Harry's out here calling 62 goals of damage a "mood swing" while dropping real C$ on it, laughable really. I'll be over here taking Blues -1.5 at the bookie and letting the opener crowd cry. 💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
Beth nailed it with the goalie angle. I laid moneyline favourites all last season and the ones that burned me were the nights a backup started and I never checked. Blues -1.5 against a squad that got outscored by 62? I'd need the starter confirmed before touching that number. Harry, your ticket only lands if that netminding holds up. 🔥
Value over a big price 💸
Beth and TrueFan acting like a goalie sheet changes a 62-goal gap, love it 😂 even if the backup starts he's still facing that roster. Harry, dropping real C$ on a team that scored 213 all season is a lottery, not sport. Wait for the fanboys to pile in with "opening night magic" 🤡😏
62 goals of damage and the Blues still gave up 258 themselves, that defence ain't covering -1.5 on the road with any reliability. I laid C$50 on Hawks +1.5 opener last season against a similar gap and it landed because divisional road games get tight late. Give me the plus goals at home, even if the moneyline is a coin toss. 🔥
Value over a big price 💸
Blues gave up 258 themselves, so -1.5 on the road is a big ask. I'm with FrontRow, Hawks +1.5 is my play, already got C$ down. Goalie sheet just tips it further. 🔥
Bankroll discipline wins.