Blues host Columbus on October 10 with a minus-27 goal differential
A minus-27 goal differential hosting a plus-zero team, and the home side is somehow getting respect? That's the whole question of this thread right there.
St. Louis finished 22nd on 86 points (37-12-33, 231-258), so they were outscored by 27 over 82 games - that profile usually means the underlying play was worse than the record. Columbus sit 17th with 92 points (40-12-30) and a perfectly flat 253-253, which sounds balanced but to me reads more like mediocre in both directions than genuinely solid. On paper the Jackets are the better side and the safer moneyline, though I'd caveat that one season of goal data is a modest sample and opening-night form resets everything. Also worth noting the schedule: Columbus play Pittsburgh at home the night before, then fly in, while the Blues have been idle since... well, since the summer, presumably rested. I'm leaning Columbus on the moneyline but I won't touch a puck line against home ice on October 10, too many unknowns in game one.
I keep my own tables 📊
Ever lent money to a friend whose budget looked balanced on paper and still got stiffed? That's roughly my view of that 253-253. 📊 Jack nails the setup: Columbus sits three places higher at 92 versus 86 points, W40-L30 against St. Louis at W37-L33, and their even goal split smells steadier than the Blues' -27, small caveats all around given we have zero games played in this window, but if I'm putting a unit down on Oct 10, road value on the Jackets edge a ML on the hosts, provided the price respects that gap.
reminds me of the old Norris days when these two built up a proper little grudge, even if neither side has won much lately. that balanced 253-253 of Columbus always makes me chuckle though, back in my day they called that "good enough to tie you, not good enough to beat you." 😄 i'd take the Jackets to keep it close anyway, maybe the puck line over the moneyline.
Took a beating last night backing a home dog on gut feel, so lesson learned. I'm going with the numbers this time. Columbus ML at the sportsbook for me, small stake; that 253-253 off a 40-win season reads like a team that knows how to stay level when the game gets ugly, and St. Louis giving up more than they score all year doesn't earn my C$. Might sprinkle a few bucks on the puck line only if the price climbs past value. 😭💸
The line moves — catch it.
Gotta check who's in the Blues net before I touch anything there. goalie quality swings a moneyline more than a minus-27 does. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Agree with Amy n Harry tbh, Columbus ML is the sane play 😅. But -27? I backed Winnipeg on worse gut feelings last year, still stings 🤬
Heart with the team, head on pause.
Harry's got it right, I don't touch a total or ML till I see the goalies. Also Columbus play Pittsburgh at home the night before, then fly in, back-to-back on the road, that's where I'd look at the Blues puck line 💸
Value over a big price 💸
FrontRow's spot on with that back-to-back angle 😤 Columbus flying in after the Pitt game, gonna be tired legs. Still, if the wrong goalie starts for the Blues I'm off it entirely tbh 🔵
You don't abandon your own.
FrontRow nailed the angle I had scribbled in my notebook too. Two things carry weight on merit here: the fatigue factor from Columbus playing Pittsburgh at home on October 9 and then flying in, and whatever the Blues put in net. That swings the moneyline more than any season-long differential does. Sample size caveat, though: those 231-258 and 253-253 numbers are full-season records, and a brand-new campaign on October 10 tells you very little about who these rosters actually are this year. Context matters, a tired Jackets squad on the second half of a back-to-back can make even a minus-27 team competitive.
Where I land: the Blues puck line has a case on schedule alone, but it's a lean, not a conviction. If Columbus rolls out a strong lineup anyway, the dead-even goal record says they're the sturdier side and I'd rather be on the ML. Verify the goalies and the Columbus travel roster when they drop, and this one opens right up. My spreadsheet stays half-filled until then 📊
Context beats a bare stat.