Avalanche top the table with 121 points
Been staring at my spreadsheet since the schedule dropped, and this October 1st opener is about as lopsided as the table gets.
Colorado finished the season first overall, 121 points, 55 wins, and a goal line of 302-203 - they outscored the league by nearly a hundred. The Kings sat 20th at 90 points with a negative differential, 225 against 247. A hundred-point gap and a 99-goal swing in differential, at Ball Arena no less. On paper the home moneyline writes itself, and I'd agree the straight win is the safest angle of the night; the puck line is where the price gets interesting, small sample though, it's game one, both rosters may look different than last year's totals suggest.
One wrinkle: LA's early schedule is brutal (Panthers, then Vegas on the road, then Edmonton), so they arrive tired or they arrive desperate. Either way I'm riding the Avs on the 1st. Who's with me? 📊
Ben's numbers check out against my own table, and there's one nuance people keep skipping: the Kings weren't just mediocre, they were a negative goal differential team (225-247) that still scraped 90 points off 35 wins and 20 games past regulation. That's a side that steals points in tight games and gets blown out when the pace lifts, exactly the worst profile to bring into Ball Arena against a side that pumped in 302.
The Avs allowed 203 all season, fewest-tier stuff, so the moneyline is the clean play rather than chasing the puck line. My caveat as always: it's a season opener, small sample of zero games for both clubs this year, and openers hand out weird bounces. I'd still take Colorado straight up and keep the stake modest - maybe a third of a normal unit until we see their October legs. Riding with you. 📊
I keep my own tables 📊
Funny thing about the Kings. I remember when they were the team nobody wanted to draw in the spring, all defence and grit, dragging games into the mud. That 225-247 line tells me those days are long gone, and Jack's right that scraping 90 points out of a negative differential smells like fool's gold. History says these clubs have had some real wars, but a 20th-place Kings side walking into a 121-point Avalanche barn on October 1st? I've watched long enough to know when a mismatch is staring you in the face. 😄
🔥 riding with the Avs all day, moneyline no doubt. 302 goals?? Kings got no answer for that firepower, we're gonna feast oct 1st 💪 ah well, nowt to do but wait
One love, one side ❤️
Avs moneyline is the play, no hesitation. But the juice will be ugly, so I'm looking at the puck line if bookmaker posts anything near plus money on -1.5. Kings scraping 20 of their wins past regulation tells me they lose close games to real teams, and Colorado is a real team. Confirmed my starter before touching anything else, though, that's rule one. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Harry nailed it on the OT/L record angle - 22 skims past regulation tells you exactly how those 90 points were built 😭 Moneyline price won't be worth touching, so I'll stalk the puck line myself and pounce if any bookmaker flashes even-money territory overnight. Watch goalie confirmation morning-of too, that line moves fast either way 🍻
The line moves — catch it.
Beth got it, puck line all day 🔥 saw the Avs live in Montreal once, they buried us in 10 mins. Kings getting torched Oct 1st, no doubt 💪
On the terraces since I was a kid.
Harry and Beth are right, juice will be brutal so the puck line's the value. Checked the goalie situation is my routine before anything, Kings travelling to Denver off that Vegas game Oct 11 too. 💸
The line moves — catch it.
302 goals for, Beth called it dead on 😂 throwing a few loonies on the puck line myself, Kings negative goal diff screams fraud 💪🔥
Heart with the team, head on pause.
Landed a nice little puck line ticket on Colorado in a spot like this last spring, so I'm not chasing the moneyline juice again 😭 only wrinkle for me is the starting goalies, I don't touch anything until those names drop, 302 goals or not. Kings' 247 against screams prey, agreed. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Everybody's on the puck line and I get why, 302 goals for against a side that got outscored over 82 games is a chasm, and Tom's point about LA coming off that Vegas trip Oct 11 is the sort of detail that decides openers. Small sample though: one game in October, both benches still sorting lines and pairings, so I've got my Avs lean written in pencil, not pen. Goalie names drop, then I decide how heavy the ticket gets 📊
I keep my own tables 📊