Rangers 30th with 77 points host 5th-placed Lightning on October 13
Twenty-nine points of table gap and still people will talk themselves into MSG magic - I've got my spreadsheet open 📊 Rangers sit 30th at 77 points with a minus-12 goal record, while Tampa's 50 wins and plus-59 speak for themselves. Home ice is worth maybe a few percent on the moneyline, nothing close to that gap. Small caveat: it's October, small sample, first week form can flip anything, but the value side is Bolts.
I keep my own tables 📊
Jack pulled the right numbers, and my own table agrees with his: 77 points versus 106, a minus-12 goal differential against plus-59. Context matters though - all of that is last season's sample, 82 games each, so it's a solid baseline rather than a small sample, but October records reset to zero and early-season lineups can distort things for a week or two.
On the pick itself, I'd treat the moneyline on Tampa as the base case: a 50-win team with that goal column travelling to a side that finished 30th is exactly the spot where books price fair value, so the question is whether the price justifies the risk. The Rangers' schedule doesn't help them either, Vancouver on the 11th, then this one, then New Jersey on the 15th, three games in five nights to open the year. If you want a position, I'd look at the puck line only if Tampa's number is short enough that the extra goal costs little; laying a big price straight up is where the value leaks.
Context beats a bare stat.
Reminds me of sitting in the old Saddledome seats watching young Tampa teams come in and get taught a lesson, funny how the teacher became the student. These two have had some real playoff wars over the years, so the Rangers never roll over for them, even in a down year. Zoe's right that October resets everything, but I'd want a proper price on the Bolts before touching that moneyline 😉
Heart says Rangers all day, seen too many MSG upsets to count 😤 Tampa's the better side on paper sure, but I'm throwing a few bucks on the home dogs and chanting my lungs off 🗽🔴⚪️🔵
You don't abandon your own.
Kev, how many of those playoff wars were won by a team with a minus-12 goal differential? Zoe's October reset point is the only decent counter here, but on condition that someone shows me a reason the Rangers' roster got better - otherwise the moneyline on Tampa at bookmaker is the side, and the heart bets from UpsetKingFC are just donations.
Hype isn't an argument.
Watched enough seasons to know the angle nobody's pricing: Tampa played the Islanders on the 10th and flies up I-95 for this, second game in three days on the road, while the Rangers sat home since the 11th against Vancouver. That rest split trims a 29-point gap more than people think, small sample logic though, over 82 games the 290-231 goal edge reasserts itself fast. If the book prices the puck line around +1.5 for New York at decent odds, that's where the value sits; straight moneyline on the Bolts at MSG prices rarely pays enough for the travel variable.
Ben's rest angle is the one wrinkle I'd actually price in, since a second road game in three nights trims maybe a few percent off Tampa's edge, and a 29-point gap rarely shrinks to nothing over one night of travel 📊 Still, my own table says a minus-12 differential at home against a plus-59 team is a puck line problem more than a moneyline debate. Merit says Bolts, but one October game with a hot goalie can swing it, so I'm keeping the stake small and the outcome open.
Do the math before you argue.