Jets sit 26th with 82 points and a minus-29 goal gap
Minus-29 goal differential and 26th in the league, and some of you are still talking yourselves into the Jets on October 7? Colorado at Canada Life Centre is a moneyline play for me, full stop. the bookie will hang a price on Winnipeg because it's home ice, but the numbers say otherwise: 231 for, 260 against over 82 games, that defence doesn't survive against a top of the lineup like the Avs. If Winnipeg's anywhere near plus-money at home, that's value over a big price in the other direction, take the Avalanche and don't overthink it.
Puck line is where I'd be careful, though. One-goal games at home can get ugly late, and I've been burned laying -1.5 with a favourite that wins 4-3. Probably take the ML straight, maybe 1 unit of my C$50 max on the puck line if the line moves toward Colorado before puck drop. Won't touch the total until I see who's confirmed in the nets. Even a keener can't defend that goal gap. 😸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
JackBeliever's got the sample right: 35-12-35 with 260 against at 26th overall - I don't see a case for Winnipeg on October 7 either. Colorado moneyline, keep the stake sane. 📊
I keep my own tables 📊
You two are priced like the line never moves, eh? One game in October, goalies matter more than 82 games - I'd take the puck line with Winnipeg and a small C$ stab.
Bankroll discipline wins.
BenBeliever2014, love the confidence, mate. Didn't you tout Winnipeg against Colorado last spring and then go quiet for a month? 😂 Careful whose picks you're backing with your C$.
JackBeliever is right here though. 260 goals against, minus-29, 26th in the league, backing the Jets at home to Colorado is a lottery ticket, not sport. I'll throw a loonie at the puck line for a laugh if the line drifts stupid, but anyone hammering the home side with a "small stab" is just donating. And Ben, "goalies matter more than 82 games" is the exact line people type right before they lose the bankroll. Sure thing, mate. 🤡💸😏
It's a lottery, not sport.
26th place in October means nothing tbh, everybody's 0-0 😤 one hot goalie and your "sample size" talk is toast. small C$ on the puck line, no stress 🙌
Ben_TillIDie, one hot goalie is exactly the point — 35 ties and 35 losses on 260 goals against tells you the defence bled all year, and hot goalies don't appear in back-to-back October stretches against Colorado's pace. I keep my own tables every season and the last-place finishes in goals against rarely flip overnight, so I lean Colorado moneyline but with a smaller stake than Jack suggests. Small sample in October, sure, context matters, but I want more than hope before touching the Jets puck line.
Context beats a bare stat.
Zoe, 35 ties is called overtime points, love 😂 every team bleeds goals against MacKinnon's crew. Hellebuyck stands on his head at home and where's your pick then?? 🥅🔥
You don't abandon your own.
Andy, overtime points explain the tie column, sure, but look at the split: 231 for against 260 against means the base goal rate was negative all season, and I keep my table updated round by round for a reason. 📊 Home ice at Canada Life Centre buys you maybe a 3-5% edge in the underlying numbers, which won't cover a minus-29 differential against MacKinnon's pace. I'd treat the moneyline on Colorado as the honest play and keep any Jets bet to a puck-line flyer worth one unit of C$ at most. Small sample though, two weeks into October, that's the only caveat I'd attach.
Hellebuyck standing on his head is exactly the problem, Andy 😤 he did it all last season and they STILL bled 260 against... can't stop MacKinnon's crew when the defence in front of him is leaking every night. Throwing my loonie on the Avs moneyline, Jets gotta show me something first 🤬
On the terraces since I was a kid.
My spreadsheet has a column most of you haven't mentioned: schedule context. October 7 opens a stretch where Winnipeg plays five games in nine nights, including Pittsburgh away two days before Colorado rolls in. Rest disadvantage against MacKinnon's pace is a quiet tax that never shows up in the season table, and it compounds exactly the weakness Zoe and Ben are flagging - a defence that was underwater all year gets less practice time and less recovery.
That said, I'd caution against loading up on the Avs moneyline at whatever price the bookie hangs. The market already prices this gap in, so the value, if any, sits on the puck line rather than the straight win. My plan: small stake on Colorado -1.5 only if it pays above even money, otherwise pass. I keep my own table updated every round for a reason, and right now it says the Jets need to show me a fixed defensive structure before I touch their side of anything.
Do the math before you argue.
nah, y'all burying my Jets too fast 😤 Hellebuyck stole a game vs Colorado at the 'Peg a couple seasons back and I was LOSE MY MIND loud in my living room, you just know he can do it again. Five games in nine nights cuts both ways, Avs travel tired too. My loonie's staying home with Winnipeg 🥅🔥 GO JETS GO
You don't abandon your own.
You want my angle? Look at the goal rate instead of the points column. 231 in 82 games works out to 2.82 a night, and 260 against is 3.17. That's a team that needs a one-goal game to be perfect just to stay in the conversation. Against a side like Colorado you don't get to dictate pace, they make you defend in your own zone for whole shifts, and a leaky defensive profile gets punished faster at home than people think, because the crowd pushes the coach to open up.
Where I'd pause before betting the Avs flat: October 7 is game one of the season, and small sample though season openers are, netminders fresh off a summer tend to look like Vezina candidates for twenty minutes. If Hellebuyck holds the first period, the moneyline price will have been steep and the puck line on Colorado becomes the smarter entry. That's my plan, Avs win, but I'm pricing the margin, not just the result. 📊
I keep my own tables 📊
Avs travel tired too?? Gary just showed you they bleed 3.17 a night... that's no matchup for MacKinnon, sorry 🤬 my loonie's riding the Avs moneyline, ah well, nowt to do 💪
On the terraces since I was a kid.
Agree with the room here, Avs ML is the play and I might sprinkle the puck line if the price at the sportsbook stays under -150. Back-to-back travel into the Peg plus a minus-29 club bleeding chances? Hellebuyck can steal one but I've been burned leaning on goaltending too many times 😭 C$100 down and forgotten, see you after the final horn 💸
Bankroll discipline wins.