Everyone's burying the Jets at 26th

Nobody prices 26th by accident, Harry, 231 goals for against 260 against over a full 82 tells you the defence was leaking long before the table did. That said, your read on the schedule has legs. Four of five at Canada Life Centre, and if I'm splitting hairs, Anaheim and Minnesota at home are the two where I'd expect points; Colorado on the 7th is where I'd budget for zero and be pleasantly surprised otherwise. My line: 6 points from five feels about right. Wins over Anaheim and Minnesota, split the road games in Pittsburgh and Chicago, call Colorado a coin flip you probably lose. If you want me to dig a bit deeper, the goal differential matters for the puck line more than the moneyline: a team outscored by 29 over the season doesn't blow anyone out, so I'd favour them on the ML in the soft games and skip the puck line entirely. Small sample though, none of October's been played yet, so this is all on last year's base rates.

Love how Retro is suddenly a bankroll manager after dropping C$50 on a blind total last year 😂 same guy who faded the Jets in March and watched them cash three straight at Canada Life Centre. And Harry, easy on the "winnable on paper" talk. Your paper predictions have been donating to my account all season, keep it up. I'll say 5 points from the stretch, and no I won't explain myself 🤡💸

Retro's question is the right one, but I'd push it further, the goalie matters less than how those 260 goals against were distributed last season. If a chunk came from blowout road nights, the home splits could look way cleaner than the aggregate suggests, and 26th place with a losing record that's dead even at 35-35 doesn't read like a lottery team to me. My lean: 6 of 10 points from the five, maybe 7 if they steal one in Pittsburgh. Colorado on Oct 7 is the coin flip, Minnesota on Oct 14 the real test. Caveat before anyone quotes me, this is one five-game stretch against a full-season baseline, so the sample tells you almost nothing either way. I'm tracking it in my sheet like everything else, and the market being this low on them smells more like recency than pricing. 📊

Everyone's acting like Colorado on Oct 7 is a write-off already... why? It's at the Hangar, crowd's gonna be loud, and Avalanche teams have dropped easy ones on the road before 😤 Anaheim and Minnesota at home are where the points are though. I'll say 6 from the five, and if the goalie leaks like last season's 260 against I'm fading the total all October tbh

You know what my spreadsheet says when a team runs a minus-29 goal differential? Regression looms both ways. Jack's distribution point is the real lever here: if that 260 against was bloated by road blowouts, home splits may be far kinder, and small sample though it'll be by Oct 14, I'd still lean 5 or 6 points from the four home-leaning games, with Colorado the coin flip. 📊

Spreadsheet guy says regression both ways?? 😂 you just know Ben's never yelled LET'S GO at the Hangar... 5 points minimum from that stretch, book it 🔥💪

Chloe talking 5 points minimum is brave, I like it 😂 My ledger says 4 - Colorado's a coin flip where I'd need +moneyline value, sweep Anaheim and Minnesota as chalk-ish plays, then steal a point in Chicago. Puck line on the Ducks game feels juiciest. Locked it in, see you after Oct 16 💸