Who Actually Beats Ottawa At Canadian Tire Centre This October

Harry, you've got the calendar slightly tangled but your instinct about that middle stretch is right. The Devils game on Oct 12 is away, then they turn around and host the Blues on the 13th. That's the only true compressed turnaround of the five, and it's where I'd expect the legs to show. Here's my read from the table: 99 points and 9th place means Ottawa was winning games (44 of them) but bleeding points elsewhere, and a 278-246 goal difference tells you the defence gave back almost as much as the attack created. Against that profile, I'd take Ottawa at home in the opener against Philly on Oct 8 and against Nashville on the 10th, treat the Devils road trip as a coin flip, and look hard at the Blues plus-money if the books price Oct 13 lazily after the travel. Islanders on the 15th closes it - home ice, rest in hand, lean Sens. Small sample though, since none of these have been played and October form is a different animal 📊

Tom picking the Blues on the puck line, that's cute. Didn't you fade Ottawa last stretch too and torch your bankroll? 😂 Send the 12th-13th on Devils/Blues both, thank me later 💸😏

Funny how Enforcer talks bankrolls while recommending someone parlay two games with zero margin between them. My lean is actually the Devils away on the 12th. Travel day plus the turnaround into the Blues the next night means Ottawa's start that evening matters more than usual, and road openers after a homestand tend to come out flat. The sample here is tiny, one October slate, so I'd keep any stake on it modest rather than building a thesis. 📊

Devils away on the 12th? nah, that building's been rough for us before 😬 Blues on the 13th with dead legs is the one I'd fade. CTC is gonna be LOUD on the 8th 🏒🔥

Made a little spreadsheet for this stretch before posting, because someone had to. Five games in eight nights, and the schedule flags one thing people are missing: the Oct 12-13 back-to-back, with travel to Jersey in between. Fatigue compounds, and the second night of a back-to-back against a fresh Blues team at CTC is historically where legs die, sample size is tiny this early in the season, sure, but the pattern shows up year over year. So I'm with Tom on the Blues lean, though I'd stay off the puck line and take the moneyline; Ottawa's 278 goals for against 246 against last season says they win by volume, not by blowout, and a one-goal game is the most likely shape of it. The Oct 8 opener against Philly I'd actually leave alone entirely. Openers are noise, nobody's shape is settled, goalies are cold, and the books price home opener emotion in anyway.

Everyone keeps hyping the Devils away like that's the trap... it's the Blues on the 13th with dead legs after Jersey, that's where I'd fade 🤷 CTC will carry them the 8th 🔥

Saturday game-2 on a back-to-back is the one spot where a team's underlying numbers stop mattering as much, and that's where my read diverges slightly from the crowd. I keep a running sheet on rest spots every season, and second halves of back-to-backs are where goalies get soft on the far side, you see it in the shot quality against, not the shot count. Ottawa's 246 against over 82 games says the defence was decent last year, but ask me how a tired blue line handles the Blues forecheck on Oct 13 and I'd say the rest-adjusted numbers shrink that 246-quality defence quite a bit. Small sample though, one game, and St. Louis travelled too, so it depends how you count it. What nobody's pricing properly is the Flyers opener on the 8th. Home opener, CTC loud, but teams coming out of camp with a new-look lineup tend to take ten or twelve games to gel, that's historically where the upset margin hides.

y'all act like we fold on back-to-backs every time 🤬 99 points didn't happen by accident. calling wins over Flyers, Preds AND Blues, split the rest. ah well, nowt to do 🔥

Locked my moneyline on Ottawa the 8th and the 13th, small stake on the Isles. Waited on Jersey till the goalie list drops 💸 See you after.