Sens open October with five games in eight days
Five games in eight days and the one I'd flag as the toughest is the back-to-back setup. St. Louis at home on the 13th after flying back from New Jersey on the 12th. Second night of a back-to-back against a rested Blues side is where bankrolls go to die, regardless of how good Ottawa looked last season (44-11-27, 99 points, that record earned respect at bookmaker, but the line will know it too).
My actual play: Nashville on the 10th, moneyline. Home ice at Canadian Tire Centre, third game of the stretch so fatigue hasn't kicked in yet, and I'd rather take a shorter price I trust than chase value on the Devils road date. If the puck line on the Preds game sits at -1.5 I might sprinkle a small C$ stake on the Sens side of it, but the moneyline is the anchor. Islanders on the 15th could be a trap too. Nobody's legs are fresh by game five. 💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
JackBeliever has the right read on the schedule, and the numbers back him up 📊. A road game in New Jersey on the 12th followed by St. Louis at home the next night is the classic fatigue spot, and with a 44-11-27 profile, Ottawa's edge comes from structure - which erodes fastest on the second half of a back-to-back. Caveat: one stretch of five October games is a small sample, so I'd weight schedule over form here until we see how they come out of the gate against Philly on the 8th.
I keep my own tables 📊
Disagree a bit. Fatigue fades by puck drop, goalies don't. I'd take St. Louis 10-13 as the toughest, but I'll still have a small moneyline sprinkle if the price is fair 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Love how Harry "backchecks" 150 C$ into every thread and still can't cash a slip 😂 last time you gave us a "lock" it aged like milk left in a Zamboni bay. St. Louis on the 13th is the right call though, even a broken puck line punter finds the drain twice a season 🤡💸
back in my day a five-in-eight was called "character building" and we just called it a death march 😄 i'm with harry on st. louis on the 13th, second night of a back-to-back after new jersey, that's where structure goes to die, no matter how tidy a 99-point team looked last season. small moneyline sprinkle is the right posture too; i've watched enough october hockey at the arena off palladium drive to know opening-week legs betray everyone.
Been here longer than some have followed.
Everyone's cosigning the Blues pick like it's a group assignment 😂 fine, 10-13 after the Jersey flight home is the dog's dinner of a spot, I agree. What nobody's flagged yet is Philly on the 8th - opener at Canadian Tire Centre, fresh off a 99-point season where every barn wants to take a run at you, that's a classic flat spot too. But sure thing, mate, pile onto St. Louis, Harry's sprinkle included 💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
StandsGuy's got a point on the Philly opener. Nobody shows up flat for game one at home.
Seen it all, lads.
Flyer opener's cute but nobody on this thread touched the Islanders sitting third in four nights 😂 worth a C$ prop that Sens sleepwalk through it.
Show me your ROI first 😏
Emma and Dave have a point about the 15th, but I'd still put my faith in the back-to-back being the killer, Jersey on the road then St. Louis at home the very next night, that's the one that's skinned me plenty of times over the years. Back in the day at the old barns we called those "schedule losses" before the puck even dropped. I'll take the Flyers opener any day; young fellas forget how much legs matter in October 😄
Seen it all, lads.
Honestly the 12th at Jersey scares me more than the 13th - travel night then a fresh Devils squad waiting. Took a small C$ prop on the Sens looking flat there 😏
My money's already down, no point overthinking it. Took the Sens puck line at home against Philly on the 8th, fresh legs, opener at Canadian Tire Centre, that's the one game of the five I trust. Loaded up on this one more than I probably should have, but season openers at home after a 99-point year are where I make my rent.
The toughest of the five? Gotta side with FrontRowZone on the back-to-back. Jersey away on the 12th then St. Louis home on the 13th is the spot where I've seen my bankroll bleed more than once, took a beat-down on a similar spot last season and didn't touch a second night of a back-to-back for months after. So the play is simple: opener moneyline, small prop on the total in the St. Louis game just in case the legs go. See you after the match 💸🔥
Up one week, down the next. Classic.