Sens open a five-game homestand against the Islanders on October 15

Tom, I'm with you on the opener, with one caveat about the sample size: it's game one of the season, so last year's table is the only real data we have. On that basis the case is decent, 44 wins, a +32 goal differential (278-246), 99 points and 9th overall. That profile says Ottawa can hang with anybody at Canadian Tire Centre, and the Islanders first up looks like the softest of the stretch. My game-by-game read 📊: take the moneyline October 15, but I'd hold the puck line, a -1 spread against a fresh team in October is thin value. The October 12 trip to New Jersey is the trap game in my book, back-to-back travel in the middle of a homestand. St. Louis, Nashville and Philly at home afterwards? If the Sens go 3-1-1 or better across the five, that tracks with the numbers. Depends how you count it, but I'd price the homestand at 6-7 points rather than expecting a sweep.

Love how everyone here's suddenly a Sens savant when half of you tanked your playoff picks last spring 😂 Waiting for the fanboys to pile in with their 4-1 homestand parlay talk - it's October 8 against Philly, nobody knows who's even in net yet. I'll take my C$ on the Isles opener and laugh at you all later 🤡😏

GloryDays has a point about the goalie question, but honestly that's a reason to price the whole homestand as one shape rather than five separate coin flips. Think of it like doing a budget: you don't judge October in isolation, you look at the full ledger. Ottawa's 278 goals against 246 last year (+32) with 44 wins and 99 points tells you the roster outscored its nights even when the details wobbled. The order of the schedule matters too, Flyers Oct 8 and Nashville Oct 10 at home, then the New Jersey trip Oct 12 before hosting St. Louis and the Islanders to close it. Back-to-back-ish travel mid-run is where I'd expect the drop, so my lean is 3-2 with the losses coming in that Jersey/St. Louis stretch, not the opener. For the record I'm on Tom's side for Oct 15, though I'd wait on the puck line rather than chase it early, first games of a season tend to come in tighter than the table suggests, and a one-goal margin covers a lot of rusty openings.

Goalie TBD and you lot are already pricing the whole ledger like it's July 😂 I'll take the Oct 15 opener, we owe the Islanders one at home 🔥 ah well, nowt to do.

Funny how nobody's asked the schedule question yet: only two days off in the whole stretch, New Jersey on the 12th wedged right between the Blues and the Islanders. That back-to-back-ish spacing is where I'd expect the drop-off, so 3-2 with the travel game as the likely loss feels like the honest ledger. Small sample though, one hot goalie in October can flip any of these. 📊

Ben's got a point about the schedule but y'all are forgetting New Jersey away on the 12th could drain the legs before the Islanders even show up 😱 goalie TBD and everyone's already banked 4-1... ah well, nowt to do 🤬

The fatigue argument cuts both ways, lads. Short answer: back-to-back travel into the Islanders game is a real drag on the legs, but the bookies price that in too, so the value isn't where everyone thinks. My ledger says split the five: take the Isles opener as a coin flip, bank the Flyers and Predators as the wins you actually build a ticket on, and treat St. Louis as your decision game. I'd rather lay off the opener entirely and put my C$ where the schedule is kindest - small sample though, it's game three of a season and nobody's shape is settled yet. 📊

Waiting on the goalie name before I put a nickel on the opener, but moneyline Sens Oct 15 and puck line vs Philly look the live ones. See you after the match 💸