Sens finished 9th with 99 points
Four of five at home against a 99-point side? My money's leaning Ottawa puck line in at least three of those, starting with the Flyers on Oct 8. They went 44-11-27 with a +32 goal diff last year, and that offence putting up 278 doesn't lose many nights at Canadian Tire Centre. I'd slot them 3-1-1 on this stretch, only real coin-flip is the Oct 12 trip to Jersey, and road back-to-back situations like that have burned me before (loaded up on a Sens road ML two seasons back, watched the line move against me all day and ate the loss).
Value over a big price is the whole play here. Moneyline on Ottawa at home vs Philly or Nashville will be short, so I'd rather take the -1.5 in the spots where the crowd and the schedule favour them, and maybe a lean on the Islanders game Oct 15 as the trap date. Keep stakes flat, maybe C$25-50 a night depending on the number at bookmaker, and this stretch pays for a few beers by Thanksgiving. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Harry, I'm with you on the direction, though I'd pump the brakes on taking the puck line in all three. 44-11-27 and +32 over 82 games tells you Ottawa wins more than they blow teams out, and that 278/246 split reads like a side that grinds out one-goal nights. My lean: take them straight up at home against Philly (Oct 8) and Nashville (Oct 10), treat the Oct 12 trip to Jersey as the fade spot, and only look at the puck line against St. Louis on Oct 13 if the price is right. Caveat on sample size: these are season openers, so last year's table is a prior, not proof. I'd keep stakes modest until we see ten games of current form. 📊
I keep my own tables 📊
Harry, I'm with you on the direction, though I'd pump the brakes on taking the puck line in all three. 44-11-27 and +32 over 82 games tells you Ottawa wins more than they blow teams out, and that 278/246 split reads like…
Fair read, Jack. One-goal grinder. I'd rather take Ottawa ML in the Jersey game Oct 12, home dates lean Flyers upset for me. Moneyline only, saved myself plenty last year chasing those lines 😭💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
Love how confident everyone got after one decent season 😏 Harry, didn't you fade this exact Sens side at CTC last winter and eat a loss? And Faithful, "moneyline only" from the guy who chased himself into the poorhouse, laughable really. I'll take Ottawa ML in all four home dates and keep my C$ away from that Jersey trip, but sure, wait for the fanboys to pile in.
Funny how Enforcer pops up to chirp everyone while offering zero picks himself 😄 My two cents: the schedule protects Ottawa here, four of five at CTC, and the one road trip (Jersey on Oct 12) is the only back-to-back-ish spot if you count the Nashville date before it. That +32 goal diff over 82 games is real, but 278-246 reads like a team that wins by a goal more often than it buries anyone, so I'd stagger: lean moneyline on the Flyers opener Oct 8 and the Blues on Oct 13, and only touch the puck line against the Islanders Oct 15 if the price drifts your way.
I keep my own tables 📊
Harry, before you fire on three puck lines, check the schedule texture: that Nashville date on Oct 10 sits right before the Jersey trip, so a tired Ottawa group landing in Newark is the one spot I'd actually fade. My scoreline lean for the five-game stretch is 3-2-0 overall, all three wins at Canadian Tire Centre, with the Blues on Oct 13 the toughest of the home dates. Sample size caveat applies, obviously, one October week tells you very little about a 99-point baseline, but context matters and I'd rather split the bankroll across two or three of these than lump it all on opening night.
Context beats a bare stat.
Locked it in: Flyers puck line Oct 8 and Preds ML Oct 10, leaving the Jersey trip alone since Zoe's right about the fatigue spot, and I'll take the Isles date only if the price stays reasonable 💸 Enforcer, last winter's CTC fade paid for my lesson - bankroll is everything. See you after the matches 🔥
Bankroll discipline wins.