Sens at 99 points last season
Took a while to settle on this one eh, Sens at 99 points last year, 44 wins and a +32 diff at Canadian Tire Centre, so we know the pace is legit now, not a fluke bubble. Opener Oct 15 against the Isles I'm going Ottawa ML hard. Talking to some lines at the sportsbook they had it around -160/-170 range depending on goalie announcements - and that matters more to me than any total. If it prices closer to -140 I'll add the Sens on the puck line instead because laying heavy juice on one game is how you bleed a bankroll quietly.
Honestly the Islanders side scares nobody here, but an October road date where both squads haven't found rhythm can produce garbage outcomes, which happened to me twice last season. So plan: put down one unit on the ML right at open, hold back another half-unit sized chunk purely for whichever squad has fresh legs, that leans us better if their goalie gets confirmed sharp early the morning of.
Bankroll discipline wins.
Harry's reading of the pace matches my spreadsheet, for what it's worth 📊 44 wins on 278 goals for works out to roughly 3.4 a game, and with a +32 diff the underlying play holds up better than a one-off bubble season usually does. I'll back Ottawa ML on the 15th too, though I'd add a small caveat: opener vs the Isles is one game, and one game is a tiny sample, I'd rather spread the stake across the homestand (Flyers on the 8th, Nashville on the 10th, Blues on the 13th) than lump it all on the Islanders date.
I keep my own tables 📊
Harry's reading of the pace matches my spreadsheet, for what it's worth 📊 44 wins on 278 goals for works out to roughly 3.4 a game, and with a +32 diff the underlying play holds up better than a one-off bubble season usu…
Spreadsheet's cute, Jack, but openers are coin flips - lost C$150 last season backing last year's pace in game one. Taking Isles +puck line instead 😭
Retro, you dropped C$150 backing "last year's pace" and now you're so sure openers are coin flips the Isles get the puck line? laughable really 😂 my whole homestand sweep went sideways last October too but at least I don't pretend a spreadsheet told me otherwise. Sens ML on the 15th, sure thing, mate 🤡💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
Retro, dig a bit deeper before you pay the coin-flip tax again: 11 shootout-free wins beyond regulation in that 44 tells me Ottawa closed games late, which is exactly what openers punish tired road legs for. Sens ML for me too.
I keep my own tables 📊
Retro, what worries me about the coin-flip logic is the calendar, honestly: Ottawa plays New Jersey away on October 12, then hosts St. Louis on the 13th, then the Isles on the 15th. That back-to-back stretch is where I'd want the puck line, not the moneyline. Fresh Isles legs against a tired Sens group on game three in four nights changes how you count it. My C$ is leaning Islanders +puck line precisely for that congestion, pace from last season or no pace.
Do the math before you argue.
Ya'll forgetting we got Jersey away on the 12th then back home the 13th?? 😱 tired legs vs the Isles, count me out on a sweep. Isles on the puck line tbh, ah well, nowt to do 🤬
One love, one side ❤️
Watching the thread pile onto the Sens ML and nobody's priced in what that 278-246 actually means. Thirty-two over 82 games is a hair over 0.4 goals per game of margin, which is thin enough that one cold goalie turn can flip a home date. I still like Ottawa on the 15th, mind you, the Isles opener after that Jersey/Blues back-to-back is the part I'd hedge, and RideOrDieZone's puck line point is the smartest read in here so far.
My call: Sens ML straight, but if the Jersey-Blues stretch goes sideways I'd want the price to move before touching the sweep. Anyone counting a four-game homestand sweep before a single puck drops is running a smaller sample than they think. One bad special teams night versus Nashville's structure and that parlay ticket burns. Keep the Isles game separate from the homestand props and your bankroll thanks you later.
Context beats a bare stat.
Zoe, one cold goalie turn? Nah, our guy bailed us out plenty last year, remember the nights he stole games at CTC 🔥 Sens ML all day, get in!
On the terraces since I was a kid.
You know that feeling when you leave the car running in the driveway for ten minutes in January and it still coughs on the first pull? That's an opener for me. First real game of the season, no rhythm, no sample, and guys shaking off the summer, I don't touch moneylines on opening night, ever, especially against a dormant team like the Isles who had nothing to do but stew.
My spread for the homestand, for what it's worth: 2-2. The 12th/13th Jersey-Blues crunch leaks into the 15th, Zoe's 0.4 goals per game of margin says one off night flips any single date anyway, so chasing four home wins from a club that dropped 27 games last year feels greedy to me. Sens on the puck line in the October 8 Flyers game only, and I'd want a price that respects tired legs on the 15th before I even consider it. Small stakes each way, that's the whole plan.
Zoe with the goalie doom talk again 😱 our guy stole half the games at CTC last year, cold turn my butt. Ben your car analogy is weak tbh, opener hype is real, crowd gonna be loud Oct 15. Sens ML all day, no sweep tho, Jersey away scares me too StandsGuy 🤬🔥
Locked mine in already: Sens ML on the 15th and I'm riding the puck line against Philly on the 8th too. I want a better price than straight moneyline on what should be the softest date of that homestand. Zoe's got a point about the thin margin, 0.4 goals a game isn't much cushion, but the crowd at CTC for an opener is worth half a goal alone IMO.
Blues on the 13th I'm passing, back-to-back with Jersey away the night before and I don't touch those spots with real bankroll. Predators on the 10th I'll likely add once I see the goalie cards. If the Isles opener lands I'm up a unit, if not we reconvene. See you after the match 💸🔥
Up one week, down the next. Classic.