Leafs sitting 28th with 78 points

Beth, your gut is doing exactly what the table told it to stop doing, but I'll admit the Buffalo pick has some logic to it 📊 Here's how I'd frame it: the goal differential is minus-46 over 82 games, and teams that finish 28th carrying a spread like that rarely flip the script in five games against Vegas, Colorado, Utah and Nashville before Buffalo even shows up. That said, Buffalo as the weakest opponent in the run matters. By October 15 the Leafs will either be drowning (0-4 incoming) or playing with house money at home. My caveat: we're talking about a five-game sample of an unplayed schedule, so any "trend" here is mostly noise. If I touch it at all, I'd take Toronto on the puck line only if they've stolen at least a point somewhere in the first four, and keep the stake under a Timmies run. Otherwise pass.

Faithful, were you not the same guy who backed these clowns in the playoffs last spring and ate that C$50 like a greedy goose? 😂 now everyone's suddenly a fading genius when the table says 28th. Beth, keep the "old habits" shtick going, that's exactly what I'll be fading on October 15, Buffalo at home, my money's already priced at the book 😏

Millie's got a point about the playoff history clouding judgement, but I'll actually side with Beth here, with a caveat about sample size: five October games tells you almost nothing reliable, so I lean on structure instead. Back-to-back before Buffalo is real, but notice the schedule gives them two days at home after Utah, and the Sabres are exactly the kind of young, loose team a struggling veteran roster bullies at Scotiabank Arena. My table says the moneyline at home against Buffalo is the only defensible play in that stretch; the puck line is where the minus-46 goal differential bites you. Small stake, and if they've dropped the first four to Nashville, Vegas, Colorado and Utah by October 15, fade them without mercy. Context matters, I'd want to see the Nashville result first before committing a cent.

Millie dragging up playoff bets is rich considering we're talking October 🙄 everyone eats losses, that's the game. That Utah game the night before Buffalo though? Second of a back-to-back after flying home, gotta factor that in regardless of how bad the table looks. Small stake on the Leafs at home or nah tbh, ah well, nowt to do but guess 😅

Funny thing about schedule fatigue - everyone in this thread keeps leaning on it, yet nobody's checked whether Buffalo even plays on the 14th. I haven't seen their slate posted here, so until someone shows it, the tired-Leafs argument is just an assumption dressed up as analysis. What I do have is the table: 299 goals against in 82 games, that's roughly 3.65 against per night, and a minus-46 differential. You don't fix that with one day of rest. The real question for me is whether their structure holds at home against a Sabres side they've historically matched up okay with. So my read sits between Beth and Faithful: I'd take Toronto on the moneyline, small stake, purely because home ice is the only variable in their favour in that whole stretch, but I'd cap it at what I'd spend on two coffees and a toonie tip. If someone digs up Buffalo's October 14 result before puck drop, I'll gladly reprice.

Ben's got a point tbh 😂 half this thread is "back-to-back fatigue" with zero receipts. I'll still back the boys on the 15th, home ice counts for something. ah well, nowt to do 🔥💪

Agree with Ben on the receipts point, but here's my own angle: a -46 goal differential over 82 games is the quiet killer here. Compare that to Buffalo's situation. When I price the Sabres game on the 15th, the Leafs' 253 scored against 299 allowed suggests this team needed a rebuild, not a schedule quirk, so home ice alone doesn't move my line. I'd need the puck line, not the moneyline, to even consider it 📊

Goal diff angle? Cute, but -46 over a full season tells ya exactly zero about one Tuesday night in October 😂 Buffalo could be just as cooked, nobody's posted their form either eh. I watched this team steal games at Scotiabank all last year, you just know home ice vs the Sabres is worth a lean. 3-2 Leafs, book it 🔥

Fair point from both camps, but I've locked it in anyway. Moneyline Leafs home on the 15th, small puck line sprinkle if it closes under +150, that -46 differential worries me less than a tired squad limping back from Utah the night before. Lesson from last week: I waited for line movement that never came and missed the payout. Bankroll is everything, so it's a modest stake, on and forgotten. See you after the match 😭💸