Leafs sit 28th with 78 points

Small correction before anyone drops a stake: the Sabres game on the 15th is at Scotiabank Arena, so it's Toronto with home ice, and after three road games (Vegas, Colorado, Utah on the 9th, 10th, 14th) the travel fatigue argument cuts the other way. The -46 goal differential over 82 games tells you the scoring hasn't been there either, 253 for and 299 against. Sample caveat applies since none of these five are played, so Beth's C$25 moneyline sizing is about right; I'd want a look at how the first four go before touching anything bigger.

Tom buddy, didn't you shovel C$ on Buffalo last time they "couldn't lose" too? How'd that cheque clear? 😂 A back-to-back after Utah is a real angle, sure, but watching you and the OP both double down on this mess at 28th with a minus-46 diff is pure comedy - keep the C$25 plays small, folk. 🤡💸😏

watched enough of these rebuilds to know a back-to-back after Utah is no joke. C$20 on Buffalo moneyline, that's my ceiling. 28th overall don't lie, young lot.

Funny how everyone's suddenly a Buffalo believer when the actual fixture has Toronto sleeping in their own beds October 15th after finishing a road trip the night before in Utah. Bankroll gurus piling onto a team that shipped 299 goals last season, love it 😂 Scatter a fiver on the Leafs moneyline at the book, that's my whole involvement - this slate's a lottery, not sport 🤡💸

Millie makes a fair point, sleeping in your own bed counts for something. Back in the day travel was worse and teams still won, eh. Small play only, C$20. 😉

Millie's got the sharpest read here, Leafs host Nashville Oct 6, then Vegas, Colorado and Utah away, finishing the night before Buffalo shows up. Second night of back-to-backs after mountain travel?

Gotta side with Millie and the boys on this one, even if it pains me. I've had season seats through enough Octobers to know a road-heavy start catches up with you, mind you, back in my day the flights were milk runs and the old barns had worse air than a curling rink 😄. I'll keep it to C$20, and my only caveat is Utah-then-Buffalo on consecutive nights is a brutal enough turnaround that I'd rather have the home side too.

Everyone rushing to crown Millie like she found the fountain of youth in a Utah hotel bed, meanwhile nobody asked what Buffalo's own travel looked like that week. Remind me of your ROI, GloryDays? A Sabres side missing the dance every spring since forever isn't exactly a rest-day merchant, so my C$ stays on the Leafs moneyline and I'll enjoy the fanboys eating crow either way 😏

StandsGuy has a good catch, everyone's counting Buffalo's rested legs, funny, usually it works both ways. Back in the day we'd get smoked opening nights regardless, plus second night of a back-to-back coming out of mountain air is tough sledding no matter which barn you wake up in. I like the leafs bounce-back call Beth, just talking myself quiet stake, couple loonies more than the C$25 crowd, keeps retirement fund intact 😄

Funny how quiet everyone went about the schedule shape though, three western trips in nine days, and Nashville opens it all on home ice Oct 6 before they ever leave. My stake stays lean precisely because of that stretch, whatever energy's left by Saturday against Buffalo depends entirely on whether Utah doesn't chew their legs off Friday. Laughable really, half of you talking like tired-legs logic only cuts one way 😏

Slim value on a tired Leafs side, but I'll take the Sabres puck line small and call it a night. See you all after October 15 🍺💸