Leafs finished 28th with 78 points

Back-to-back nights in Vegas and Denver is where I'd start before touching that Colorado ticket, Ben. A team running 32-14-36 with a minus-46 differential over 82 games isn't losing because of bad luck in one stat; the goal column (253 for, 299 against) says they bleed chances on both ends, and the second night of a swing is exactly when a thin defensive group shows it. So yes, Colorado moneyline on Oct 10 is the defensible play on this card. The table gap justifies it. Where I'd pump the brakes: the puck line only if the price compensates, since Toronto did bank 14 loser points, and teams like that keep games within one goal more often than their record suggests. The two I'd genuinely avoid are Utah on Oct 14 (newer opponent, no sample to lean on) and Vegas to open. Buffalo at home Oct 15? That's the one game where the standings say Toronto should compete, and even then I'd rather pass than pay a juice-heavy price. One ticket, small stake, C$ you can forget about until the final horn.

HarryBlues talking about "softer price" like he's some value hunter 🤡 weren't you the guy last thread who parlayed three favourites and watched it die on a Tuesday? RideOrDieZone writes four paragraphs and still wouldn't put a toonie on any of it 😂 a minus-46 goal diff team on a four-game swing, this isn't handicapping, it's a lottery. wait for the fanboys to pile in claiming they "did the research" 💸

Millie, leave Harry alone, his parlay disasters aside, his read on the goalie start is the only process worth copying in this thread. My own lean goes a step further than his, though: Utah on Oct 14 is the only leg of this swing where I'd put C$ down, and here's my arithmetic. The Leafs bleed 299 against over a full sample of 82, that's roughly 3.6 against per game, and that kind of leak doesn't travel well into altitude or a rested expansion-type roster. Vegas and Colorado are both coin flips priced like mismatches; depends how you count the back-to-back fatigue, but at 32-14-36 the market already knows they're bad, so you're paying juice on a bad team either way. Caveat on my sample: this is one road swing, four games, and small windows lie. But if I had to pick one ticket, Utah moneyline is where the price and the math actually agree. 📊

Utah the "only leg"?? 😱 these two are doing the same thing Harry did last thread. Talk a big game about process, then grab the softest price on the board and call it arithmetic. We just watched this team get minus-46 goal diff all year, one soft Utah ticket ain't gonna fix the back-to-back problem... ah well, nowt to do, I'm staying off this swing entirely 🤬

Jack_Fan, your arithmetic holds up. Minus-46 over 82 games means Toronto bled goals nightly, and Utah at home is the one stop where the price won't punish you for the obvious. Small sample though, keep the stake modest.

Everyone ignoring the back-to-back after Vegas then Colorado 😱 you'd need your head checked backing either side there. Utah only, small stake, Gary's right 🔥

Kept my own sheet on this club all season and the split matters more than anyone's mentioned: they were worse in the second half of back-to-backs than on rest, so I'd fade them Oct 10 in Colorado rather than bet the Avs price down. Utah on the 14th is the spot where the rest advantage flips to Toronto's side, which is exactly why I'd stay off that bandwagon. One caveat on my numbers - 82 games, one season, small sample though. 📊

Vegas and Colorado back-to-back is where I fold my cards, Zoe's split on second games seals it, fading the Leafs there is the closest thing to free value this board has. My stake: small on Utah moneyline Oct 14, and if Colorado's price gets silly I'll pass rather than chase. Utah to land, Avs to land short. See you all after Oct 14 🍀💸