Flames finished 29th with 212 goals all season
29th overall, 212 goals in 82 games. That's a hard no from me on the Flames moneyline Oct 9. Colorado at the Saddledome is about as ugly an opener as the schedule makers could hand them. I checked the book and the line is already leaning heavy to the Avs, no surprise there.
My play is Calgary +1.5 on the puck line, small stake, 1 unit, call it C$50 of my usual bankroll discipline. Even bad teams cover at home against the spread more often than they win straight up, and I learned that lesson the hard way last season when I loaded up on a dog moneyline and watched it die in the third. Would the ML have landed? Doubt it, eh. I'll take the safer side and skip the total entirely until I see who's in goal.
Bankroll discipline wins.
212 goals in 82 games works out to 2.59 a night, the offence alone makes the moneyline a bad price. Puck line plus is the only sane way in here; my stake is modest C$20.
I keep my own tables 📊
Gotta push back a touch, Gary. C$20 on the puck line plus is fine, but I'd rather look at the total than the side. 212 goals all season screams low-event hockey, yet Colorado can fill a net on their own, so that Oct 9 game has a real chance to clear whatever number the bookie hangs. Small C$15 on the over for me, and I learned last year chasing home-opener moneylines the hard way: landed nothing all week. 🍺
Ben, remind me of your ROI? You were the same guy telling everyone Seattle was a lock last spring, how'd that cheque look? 😂 Flames at 2.59 goals a night against the Avs, sure thing mate, I'll take the total over before I touch that side. Retro's the only one here making sense 🤡💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
Uncle got it right, over's the only play here. Avs alone can torch a bad defence at the Dome. Putting C$25 on it 😏
retro's got the right of it, that over is where my eyes go too. only caveat i'd add. Opening nights can be cagey for the first ten minutes, back in the day i lost a few cheques on early overs that settled down after a tight first period. so i'd wait for the live line or keep the stake small, maybe C$25, and honestly i'd sooner trust colourado's attack than calgary's 2.59 a night 😄
Veteran's first-period warning is cute but come on, this isn't two trap teams feeling each other out, Colorado walks into the Dome expecting to hang four on their own. 212 goals in 82 games and the only reason that over lives is the visitor side of the scoreboard, so cagey opening ten minutes means nothing when the Avs smell a soft defence 😏 Ben still hiding from the ROI question I see 🤡
Show me your ROI first 😏
the over's got my eye too, StandsGuy. my one worry is the Dome air always feels slow on opening night, seen plenty of October games at the Saddledome end 3-2 instead of the goal-fest everyone predicted 😄 small C$ stake for me.
Been here longer than some have followed.
DataDriven's slow Dome air theory is adorable, but 212 goals in 82 games says Calgary couldn't score in a barrel. Everyone circling the over like it's free money - fine, I'll be the villain who reminds you the Flames might treat opening night like a funeral, wave to the crowd, then defend for their lives while Colorado coasts to 3-2.
Meanwhile Enforcer chucks C$25 on the over like that's a "stake plan" 😂 my guy that's lottery money. If you're actually backing the Flames moneyline Oct 9, I want names - which of those 34 wins last season was vs Colorado? Exactly, crickets. I'll pass the game itself, maybe tease something tiny through the book with Anaheim a few days later when Calgary isn't facing a buzzsaw. 🤡
Skip the Flames moneyline entirely, 29th in the league doesn't get my cash against Colorado no matter how loud the Dome gets 🔥. I'll take a small C$25 on the over as my only opening-night play, and if the puck line on the Avs is anywhere near reasonable I might add a second unit before the line moves. See you all after puck drop.
Value over a big price 💸