Everyone's picking the Oilers in Anaheim on October 8
Checked the price at the sportsbook and the Oilers moneyline in Anaheim is short enough that I'm passing it, 269 goals against from a 14th-place team doesn't scream free road win to me. I'd rather take Edmonton on the puck line only if the number drifts past plus money, otherwise small on Ducks ML for value. Personally I got burned last season laying a big price in Anaheim opener night, so now I track the goalie confirmation before I touch anything. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
FrontRowLoyal, I pulled up my own table from last season and the 269 against jumps out just as much for me, but the split matters: 282 for and 93 points reads like a middle-of-the-pack side that wins shootouts and loses track meets. In Anaheim on October 8, the question is whether the Ducks can actually punish that leaky defence, a 14th-place team conceding 269 didn't get there by accident, yet the road swing through Anaheim, San Jose and Los Angeles across eight days is being priced like three free wins, which always makes me twitchy. I'd sooner look at the puck line than the moneyline if the price is short; that cushion covers exactly the scenario where Edmonton wins by one in a sloppy 5-4 sort of night. Small sample though, one season's table and no pre-season data in front of me, so context matters before anyone nukes their bankroll on the Ducks outright. 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
282 for tells me they can still outscore the Ducks if Skinner holds. I'm on the Oilers puck line instead, pays better and Anaheim's been a graveyard for totals anyway.
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
FaithfulFan63, didn't you fade Anaheim last October and lose that C$50 parlay? 😂 Puck line there is a coin flip, Skinner or no Skinner. 🤡💸
zoe's read is the honest one, 93 points and a 269 against is a team that lives by the shootout and dies by the track meet, nothing more. i'll say this though: back in my day the california swing in october was where half the league's road legs went to die, those early evening starts out there after a long flight were sneaky tough. i remember dropping money on us in anaheim when it looked like a gimme and eating a C$100 dinner of humble pie more than once 😄
so yeah, i lean edmonton on the 8th, but i wouldn't touch a short moneyline either. if anything the san jose and la games two and four nights later worry me more, that second half of the trip is where tired teams cough up points. bankroll-wise i'd rather keep the stake small and wait for a better price than force a pick the whole forum already agrees on. that's usually when the ice gets slippery, eh.
Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
Watching everyone anoint Edmonton already 😏 the Ducks opener is the trap leg of that swing, and half of you clowns will parlay all three California roadies and cry by October 14. 💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
ValueHunter's got it right, the California swing in October was always where legs went to die. I've had season seats through a few rebuilds and I still remember Road openers out west feeling like free losses for half the visitors.
FrontRowLoyal, I'm with you on passing the moneyline, but my caveat is this: Anaheim opener might be the one game where Edmonton shows up fresh, it's game one of the swing, not the third in four nights like LA on the 14th. If anything I'd look at the San Jose or Kings legs as the trap, not the Ducks. Watch as long as I have and you'll get it, the first road game of the year, everyone's still crisp. By the third one they're skating in sand. Skinner's the swing factor either way, that 269 against doesn't fix itself 😄
Been here longer than some have followed.
Locked my stake already: Ducks moneyline in Anaheim on October 8, small C$ bet because I don't touch favs priced that short with a 269 goals-against travelling on an early start. Skipped the parlay leg through San Jose entirely, one leg, see you after the match 💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.