Everyone's fading the Oilers after that 14th-place finish

C$50 on the puck line is a reasonable swing, Harry, though the goal differential tells a quieter story, 282 scored against 269 allowed is only +13 over 82 games, so that 41-30 split came with some one-goal games either way. I'd add that the record was 14th place for a reason, and road openers in Anaheim on Oct 8 are exactly where a tired roster stumbles. I'm leaning Edmonton to win but wouldn't call it free points until I see the October 3 game against Seattle. Sample size caveat applies, it's one game, not a season.

FrontRowLoyal taking the Ducks, bold move from a guy who tanked his last three plays 🤡 C$25 flyer on the moneyline? More like a donation. My C$100 says Edmonton walks out of Anaheim winners 😏

Ducks ML after tanking three straight? 😱 bold is one word for it. Enforcer, C$100 says you're right, that +13 record keeps the Oilers sharp 🔥

Spreadsheets are like a kitchen scale - they'll tell you the flour weighed what it was supposed to, they won't tell you if the cake rose. That +13 differential is the scale reading everyone keeps quoting, and I'd argue it's the wrong ingredient for this game. Context matters: a plus-13 built on 282 goals means the Oilers were in track meets all year, and Anaheim's structure last season was exactly the kind of soft, open style that feeds that profile. Add in opening-night rust, defence pairings still finding each other, and a fresh sheet where nothing from last April carries over. My lean: Edmonton to win, but I don't love the price on either side of the moneyline, so I'd rather chase the total than the winner. Over my own sample-tracking lens, new season, two teams with pace-first identities, exhibition habits, the goals column has more reliable variance than the result column.

RideOrDie that cake analogy lost me tbh 😅 we scored 282 goals last year, if that's just a "scale reading" I'd hate to see the oven lol Honestly I don't get all this hand-wringing. Oct 8 in Anaheim is a glorified exhibition for us, everyone knows it 🤬 fading a 93-point team against a squad limping through a rebuild? Harry's got the right idea with the puck line, ML price will be garbage anyway. I might toss a small unit on it myself. Ducks flyer from FrontRow? ah well, nowt to do, he'll learn 🔥💪

RideOrDie, decent kitchen metaphor but you left out the oven timer. October openers are about rust, and Edmonton opens Oct 3 at home to Seattle before that trip, so they arrive in Anaheim on the 8th with a game already under their belt. A 41-11-30 team getting treated like a bubble club is where I look twice at the juice; small sample though, one game into a season tells you very little. I'll side with the over crowd on the 8th, goals have a way of showing up early. 📊

RideOrDie the cake rose just fine for 282 goals lol 😂 rust argument dies when we played Seattle Oct 3... over in Anaheim, easy 🔥💪

Nobody's mentioned the schedule mechanics yet, so here's my angle: Anaheim on Oct 8 sits mid-trip only if you ignore that Edmonton also plays Utah at home Oct 16, meaning this is a three-game road swing where the Kings game four days later can pull attention. A team down 2-0 in the third in Anaheim historically still scores, that 282-goal engine doesn't vanish overnight, so I'll side with the over, small sample caveats apply to every opener anyway 📊

Ben stop talking about the Kings game pulling attention 😂 we scored 282 goals ffs, over on Oct 8 and I'm backing them all day 🔥💪

Ben's scheduling read is the most useful thing in this thread so far, and I'd add a wrinkle he skipped: an 8:30 PM local start in Anaheim (Pacific) after travel from a home opener messes with body clocks more than the rest days suggest. Edmonton going west for that first swing is historically where even good teams wobble in game one of the trip. Small sample though - one season's 41-11-30 tells you about their ceiling, very little about how they come out of the gate in October, since context matters and nobody has played a minute yet. My own lean: I like the over on Oct 8 but for a different reason than the 282 goals. That total reflects what they did against everyone all season; what matters here is that Anaheim's own games ran hot late, and opener hockey tends to be sloppy in the defensive zone, elite offences feast exactly on that rust Harry called rust, just on the wrong team. So over yes, moneyline no, price will likely be too short after everybody piles in.

Zoe's body clock point is legit, but that's baked into the price already. Books know everyone trips west for game one. I'm locking two plays on Oct 8: moneyline Edmonton and the over, split stakes so a slow first period doesn't kill the whole night. Learned that lesson last season when I stacked a full unit on one angle and watched an empty-netter flip everything 😭 Harry's got it right on the puck line being the value side if the juice climbs. Whatever lands, I'll be back here with the receipt. See you after the match 💸🔥