I'm calling it now: Leafs beat Buffalo at Scotiabank on Oct 15
Calling my shot here: Leafs win at home vs Buffalo on Oct 15, something like 4-2. Yes, I've seen the table, 28th, 78 points, minus-46 goal differential over 82 games, and I know how that reads. But these home dates against the Sabres have been money for me before, and I always check who's starting in goal before I put a dime on anything. If Toronto's guy is confirmed, I'm taking the moneyline and sprinkling the puck line at the sportsbook. Threw 50 C$ on the regulation win last time this matchup came up and it landed clean, so the bankroll memory is fresh 💸
For the road swing I'll go Utah loss Oct 14 (close one, one-goal game), Colorado loss Oct 10 (that's the one I'd skip betting entirely), Vegas loss Oct 9 unless the line moves in our favour after morning skate. Loaded up on this one lightly. You only live once. Drop your scores, let's see who's closest 🍺
Bankroll discipline wins.
Both of you are picking the Leafs to win and nobody's checked who starts in net yet, that's where I always look first before touching the moneyline. I'll take Buffalo outright on Oct 15, 3-1, and I'd only flip to Toronto if their guy gets the nod over a backup. Put a modest C$20 on the Sabres ML for me, and if the line moves toward Buffalo by game day that tells you I'm not the only one.
Value over a big price 💸
Ben picked a 4-2 Leafs win last road trip too, how'd that C$ work out for ya? 😂 FrontRow at least checks the netminder before touching the moneyline like a grown-up. And in reality? A team that gave up 299 goals isn't suddenly turning into the 90s Wings at home, but sure, wait for the fanboys to pile in 🤡💸
FrontRow going 3-1 Buffalo at Scotiabank?? in front of Leafs Nation 😱 bold call tbh... goalie matchup matters but that's spicy. I'm on Toronto 4-2 🔥
Heart with the team, head on pause.
Quick note on the scoring before anything else: 32 wins with 14 decided past regulation means this club bled points in extras, and if you're doing a per-60 estimate the minus-46 is uglier than it looks at five-on-five only. Depends how you count it, but either way Buffalo at Scotiabank on Oct 15 is a coin flip dressed up as a home favourite.
I'm with FrontRow on the goalie question, that's the first cell I fill in on my own sheet too, and until the starter is confirmed I won't touch the moneyline at all. My lean though: Toronto 3-2, partly because the Sabres on a quick turnaround after Utah on Oct 14 get the worse side of the rest advantage while the Leafs sit home. Small sample though, four games tell you almost nothing about a season, so I'd keep any stake here modest - say C$20-25 for fun, nothing that hurts. The real tell for me is Colorado on Oct 10; if they hang within two there, I'll upgrade my Oct 15 confidence a full notch.
FrontRow putting a 3-1 Buffalo call in our barn, gutsy 😱 Goalie matchup is fair point tho, nah I'm still on the Leafs 4-2 🔥 ah well, nowt to do but wait
One love, one side ❤️
Funny how everyone's locked in on 4-2 like it's a religiable default. Depends how you count it, but a minus-46 differential over 82 games doesn't turn into a home-ice machine just because the jerseys say Maple Leaf on them. If you want my angle: the 14 extra-time losses are the tell. That club kept dragging games past 60 minutes and kept losing them, which screams a team that can hang around but can't finish - exactly the profile that loses 3-1 or 3-2 at home to a mid opponent with a hot goalie.
So my card: Vegas L on Oct 9, Colorado L on Oct 10 (that's the roughest spot of the four), a coin-flip loss in Utah on Oct 14, and then the split, I'll take the Leafs 3-2 vs Buffalo on the 15th, mostly because divisional home games after a road swing tend to bring the effort. Small sample though, season hasn't even dropped the puck yet, so weigh my C$ accordingly 📊
I keep my own tables 📊
Gary, the 14 OT losses cut both ways tho, eh? Coulda easily been a 40-point team with a bounce or two 😅 I'll take the Leafs 4-2 at the bank on Oct 15, and gimme a split on the road trip - upset call in Vegas Oct 9, L in Colorado Oct 10, grind out Utah Oct 14 🍁🔥 through thick and thin boys
On the terraces since I was a kid.
Funnier thing about those 14 extra-time losses is the schedule around them. That road swing (Vegas, Colorado, Utah in four nights) is where a thin bench usually folds, so I'd weight the Oct 15 Buffalo game heavier than the trip itself. My sheet says home teams in the bottom ten still take two points off similar opposition far more often than people assume, mostly via special teams. Call it 4-3 Leafs at Scotiabank, Colorado the clear loss, Vegas the coin flip. 📊
Do the math before you argue.
Thin bench?? we've seen we survive worse 😤 grind beats flash, Leafs 4-2 at the bank Oct 15, split the trip, Utah's the win 💪🔥
Everyone's stamping 4-2 like a rubber, but nobody checked what the number costs: 299 goals against over 82 games is roughly 3.6 conceded per night, and that was against an easier schedule than Vegas-Colorado-Utah in four nights. Small sample though. One early-season game can hide a lot of rust on both sides. My call: Leafs edge Buffalo 3-2 at the bank Oct 15, but I'd sooner take the moneyline than touch the puck line on any leg of that trip 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
everyone hammering 4-2 like it's gospel, Zoe dropped a real number tho - 3.6 against a night and you still want the win vs Buffalo?? 😅 I watched us blow a two-goal lead at the bank once and swore off easy calls, so gimme 5-3 leafs and a bloodbath of a road trip. you just know Vegas eats that thin bench alive 🥴
You don't abandon your own.
Took the Leafs moneyline over Sabres last season when the table looked just as grim. Landed. Always check the starter first, and Buffalo's net has never scared me. 💸
Zoe's 3.6 against a night is the whole reason I'm on the puck line instead of chasing a total here. Leafs moneyline Oct 15, small stake, and I'll check both starters before the puck drops, no bets until goalies are confirmed, that's my rule. Utah loss on the 14th feels baked in, Colorado and Vegas are coin flips I'm staying off. See you after the match 💸
Value over a big price 💸