Honest take, family: this rebuild should have started two seasons
Two seasons early, yep, and anyone who watched the 2023-24 defence fall apart could see it from the 300 level. We kept polishing a core that already cashed out its chips, and now the United Center chants for Toews and Kane while the standings giggle at us. Tough scene, eh.
So when the fire sale hits, who's actually staying? I'd keep Bedard and whoever the scout team likes, and listen to offers on basically everyone over 28. Fans will cry, but that's how you get real returns instead of the loose change we got last time. Put my own money down on this rebuild dragging longer than management says, and I'd take that prop at pretty much any price. Laughable really that some of you still think a deadline goose egg saves the window. 😏
Two seasons early, yep, and anyone who watched the 2023-24 defence fall apart could see it from the 300 level. We kept polishing a core that already cashed out its chips, and now the United Center chants for Toews and Ka…
The 2023-24 defence argument gets repeated so much nobody asks what "starting the rebuild two seasons earlier" actually buys you. Maybe a couple of earlier lottery picks - maybe. Kane and Toews had real trade value at points too, and the return was still thin. I could be convinced the window was misplayed, on condition that someone shows me which concrete deals, made in 2022 instead of 2023, change the current roster. Receipts please, otherwise it's hindsight dressed up as a plan.
Where's the proof?
Harry, there's a nuance here worth spelling out: the "two seasons earlier" crowd isn't claiming we'd have contended, they're arguing about asset timing. Kane's value peaked well before he was actually moved, and Toews sat out the year he could have been flipped. That's where the thin return comes from. Same players, earlier clock, different offers on the table. Depends how you count it, but I'd take even one extra first-rounder over the sentiment tour.
Caveat though: my tables on this are built on a small sample, two sellers' deadlines, so treat it as direction rather than gospel. 📊 Now, the actual question - who stays when the fire sale hits? For me it's simple: nobody over 28 is safe, and anyone chanting for 2015 while the puck line has us as nightly underdogs needs a reminder that the chant doesn't clear cap space.
I keep my own tables 📊
jack's got the right of it, asset timing is the whole game. back when i first had season tickets through the lockout rebuild, the lesson was hammered home the hard way: sell a veteran a year too late and you get a second-rounder and a dream, sell him at peak and you're loading up picks like it's a buffet. we all saw the same movie with kane's value drifting down while the front office waited for the "right market". toews sitting out that final year stung worse, honestly - one trade deadline where both go at peak could've restocked the cupboard two rounds deep. i've watched long enough to know you never get the window back, you just get the memory of it echoing around the united center while the kids learn on the job. patience is a virtue, but so is knowing when to sell 😄
Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
Dave's lockout rebuild story is the exact lesson I keep coming back to, and Jack framed the timing question properly for once in this thread. One caveat though: everyone's working off one or two windows of veteran value here, small sample though it is, and front offices price certainty differently than we do from the couch. They held because a playoff run looked live, and that bet failing doesn't mean the logic was insane at the time.
Where I land with you all: the Kane return being thin stings less than the Toews year sitting completely unused. That's the one that keeps me up, honestly. I tell my students every semester that timing beats talent on a test, and apparently the same holds for trade deadlines. Funny thing is, you watch Calgary and Edmonton tear each other apart every winter and both of them still cycle cores better than we did. The Battle of Alberta crowds never had to chant for 2010 to feel alive.
Context beats a bare stat.
Zoe's caveat is fair, but certainty was sitting right there in 2022 and we priced it like a porch sale. Kane at peak could've brought a proper haul 🤡
Show me your ROI first 😏
My spreadsheet says the same thing Millie's saying: 2022 was the sell-high window and we priced sentiment over value. But Zoe's got a point on certainty, since you never truly know a front office's information set. So who do we actually move at this deadline, family. And who's untouchable in your book? 📊