Flames host Colorado at the Saddledome on October 9
29th in the league at 77 points and a minus-47 goal diff, the moneyline on Colorado will be ugly, so my play is the puck line with Calgary at home on Oct 9, small stake, 100-200 C$ range, and that's the whole ticket. Starter in net is the swing factor for me; until the the sportsbook posts goalies I'm not touching the total at all. Would a flat upset ML have landed? Probably once or twice a season, but I'd rather take the cushion and survive a one-goal game.
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
ChrisDiehard, the puck line is the only sane route here, I'll give you that much. But let me put the sample in front of everyone before anyone throws 200 C$ at this: 29th place, 77 points over 82 games, 212 goals for against 259 against. That's a minus-47 goal differential, which over a full season works out to roughly a goal against them every other game. Against a top-tier side like Colorado, that gap doesn't vanish because the game is at the Saddledome on October 9.
There's a nuance worth noting, though - opening night form is noisy, and one home date proves almost nothing in either direction. If you want my honest read, the Calgary moneyline is a coin you shouldn't flip; the +1.5 puck line at the sportsbook is defensible as a small-stake play, maybe your 100-200 C$ range, and nothing beyond that. And keep an eye on the Anaheim back-to-back on the 11th and 14th before deciding whether this was skill or a one-off. 📊
I keep my own tables 📊
I took worse lines than this last season and got paid, so the sample sheet from last year means nothing to me once the puck drops — 212 goals against tells me nothing about opening night in October. My angle is the moneyline on Calgary anyway, small stake, because if Colorado treats it like a warm-up the price makes it worth a shot. The real swing factor is who starts in net for the Avs, that's the first thing I check before anything else.
Value over a big price 💸
Ben_Diehard saying the sample means nothing, that's cute 😂 you tanked every "can't-miss" ticket you posted last season too, but sure, opening night is different. 😏
ben's got a point about opening night, anyone who's watched as long as I have knows october hockey lies to you daily 😄 but i'd still keep it small like chris says, i've been burned at the 'dome on home openers before, backed a rebuild squad thinking fresh legs would surprise someone, and the visitors just had too much skill. whatever you throw at that puck line, treat it as entertainment money, nothing more.
Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
DaveArmy burned at the 'dome? shocking, mate 😂 I've watched worse squads win home openers than a 77-point Flames team. 🤡💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
dave's story about the 'dome burn rings true with me. back in my day i drove a load down to calgary and stopped in for a home opener on a whim, backed the home side because the crowd had me convinced, and watched them sleepwalk through two periods while i white-knuckled a coffee at a dive bar off macleod trail 😄 october hockey lies, he's dead right.
so yeah, i'm with chris on keeping it small, call it 100 C$ on the puck line and treat it as the price of a fun night, nothing more. one caveat though: colorado's got more talent in one line than we've got in the whole lineup some nights, so if that moneyline looks too ugly, don't chase it with parlays like millie's emoji budget suggests. opener's a coin flip more often than folks admit, but coins still cost money 😉
Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
Minus-47 goal diff and everyone suddenly believes in opening night magic 😂 the Avs will feast at the 'dome. Remind me of your ROI, Chris? 💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
ValueHunter's coffee story could've been mine, i've had that exact night at a bar off barrie trail watching a ticket die in slow motion 😄 i'm with chris on the puck line, small stakes, but my caveat is nilsson-style goalies on opening night. Sometimes the 29th-place squad steals one cold. keep it under a couple hundred C$ and you'll sleep fine either way.
Puck line at the 'dome is the only sane play, Chris called it 😏 Uncle_Faithful talking ROI while fading a home opener? That's a lottery ticket, not sport 💸
Puck line's the only sane way to play it, eh. I'd toss a Loonie or two on it myself. Only worry is the Avs rolling their full lineup opening night. Seen worse squads steal one back in the day 😉
Been here longer than some have followed.
Locked in: 100 C$ on Calgary +puck line Oct 9, straight single. Whole thread agreed the Avs price will be trash so the line's the only play. But I'm checking both starting goalies that morning before the ticket goes in, learned that lesson the hard way last season when I bet a total blind and watched a backup get shelled 😭 If the Flames' guy isn't confirmed, my money stays in my pocket. See you all after the match 🔥