Flames finished 29th with 259 goals against

Twenty-nine teams below or level with them last year, and yet the goal column is the part I keep staring at 📊. TrueFan, I'm with you on passing the ML, but the sample caveat applies: 259 against came with a roster that's since been shuffled, so opening-night form isn't purely last season's table. My read: Colorado away at the Saddledome on October 9 is a spot where I'd only touch Calgary with plus money on the puck line, and even then small, maybe 0.5 units of my bankroll as a lean rather than a bet I trust. If they leak early the way they did all of 2025-26 (39 losses don't happen by accident), the Anaheim game on the 11th is actually the softer home spot of the two. depends how you count it, but 212 goals for versus 259 against says the defence was the whole problem, so backing them against the Avalanche feels like paying full price for the worst asset they own. Pass, but not pass on the season entirely.

Love how Harry "checks the goalies first", your last three fades went sideways, eh? 😂 Colorado ML is the only sane play here, I've got C$50 on it 🤡💸

Enforcer, C$50 on Colorado ML and calling it sane? brave stuff when the Avs might sleepwalk through an opener 😂 Jack's got a point tho, that 259 came with a different roster, fade isn't automatic. I'm still nervous, leacked goals all last year... gonna take the Ducks +puck line Oct 11 like Harry, small stake, through thick and thin with my bets 🤬💸

I keep my own tables and even I'd need more than one game to trust Calgary, opener vs Colorado, I'd lean Avs ML, small stake only. Sample size, caveat, all of it.

Nah I'm with UpsetKing, everyone talking like the Avs show up sharp in game one 😂 we got burned by openers before, sleepy Colorado plus a dome crowd could go sideways. Zoe's tables are cool and all but one game tells you nothing, I'd rather toss a small C$10 on Calgary ML Oct 9 and eat the L if it comes 💸 through thick and thin tbh

I ran the season splits on this over the weekend and one thing jumps out: Colorado's opening games historically come flat, and Calgary's 259 against hides a home split that was noticeably softer than the road number. Small sample though, one season. So my lean is the puck line with the Avs laying a modest price rather than the straight ML at whatever the bookie posts, you get paid for the blowout case without sweating a sleepy first twenty minutes.

"History says Avs come out flat"? 😂 Ben, we heard that one every year. I'm throwing C$20 on us at the Dome anyway, October 9, heart over spreadsheet 🔥 ah well, nowt to do.

Paul, heart over spreadsheet is a lovely hashtag until the ledger comes due, I track every stake in my little workbook and the heart column runs a deficit most years 📊 My angle nobody's touched yet: the 259 against matters more in an opener than people think. Teams don't overhaul structure in one training camp, and Colorado's top-six should feast on whatever new defensive scheme Calgary is still installing on October 9. Sam's point about sleepy openers is fair, so I'd skip the moneyline entirely and take the Avs puck line, if they're as good as advertised, you get paid properly; if they're flat, you lose less meaningful coin than chasing a risky ML anyway. Give me C$25 on that before puck drop, and I'll happily post the update here either way. Anaheim at home two days later is where I might actually look at Calgary, since the Ducks were hardly a defensive fortress themselves, small sample though, one opponent, so cap expectations.

Gary you track heart stakes in a workbook?? 😂 man alive, put C$20 on the Flames Oct 9 like Paul and feel something! I was at the Dome when we ran Avs ragged one opener — you just know 🔥

I keep my own ledger too, Gary, and mine says the same thing: openers punish the team that finished 29th far more than the favourite. My angle is the goal environment. Calgary scored 212 in 82 games, barely 2.6 a night. While giving up 3.16. That's a negative 0.5-plus differential, and teams with that profile historically need the opposing goalie to steal points; you can't back them flat against a side like Colorado that generates volume every shift. If you want exposure, the play isn't the moneyline at all. Look at the puck line on the Avs, or better yet the total. A team leaking 259 against a top-six offence screams over, and the over is where the actual value sits because casual money floods the home ML and drags that price sideways. UpsetKing, I was at the Dome for an opener like yours once too, and the memory cost me about C$300 before I started writing things down. Context matters: one loud night in the stands doesn't beat a full-season sample of 39 regulation losses.

Losing moneyline talks cheap, so here's mine locked in: I've got Calgary +1.5 on the puck line October 9, small C$30, skipping the ML entirely because backing a side that bled 259 outright against MacKinnon feels like donating. If Wolf gets the net I might add the under-but-that waits till starters drop. See everyone after the whistle 💸