Flames finished 29th with 212 goals in 82 games

FrontRowLoyal, your read on the -1.5 lines up with my table. Two caveats, small sample warning applies since these are season aggregates over 82 games, but 212 goals for and 259 against at 29th overall doesn't leave much room for optimism against a MacKinnon-led Avalanche at the Saddledome on October 9. I'd only touch the puck line if the price stays reasonable; the moneyline on Calgary feels like lighting C$20 on a dare.

Chris, weren't you the guy who backed Calgary +1 in a similar spot last spring and watched it get buried? 😂 First-week legs argument cuts both ways. Colorado's top line will be skating while the Flames' backend is still introducing itself. I'll happily take the Avs -1.5 at the bookie and wait for the fanboys to pile in with their "goal differential says close game" takes 🤡💸

I keep a running split on this exact angle, and here's where it bites: laying -1.5 in game one of a season is a different animal from doing it in game sixty. Your sample from last spring, GloryDays, was mid-season hockey where systems were set; October 9 is a game where half the skating pairs have never shared a shift in anger. Colorado's top line has continuity, sure, but the Flames' whole 212-259 profile was built over a full 82-game run, that -47 differential is structural, and one rusty week doesn't fix structure. Still, I side with Chris on the play itself. Depends how you count it, but early-season puck lines on heavy favourites historically cash less often than the same price in February, because oddsmakers haven't fully priced the rust factor either way. My lean: Calgary +1 for a small stake, maybe C$20-25 flat, and revisit the Avalanche -1.5 later in that five-game stretch if the backend keeps leaking.

GloryDays clearly forgot MacKinnon hates early-season road trips as much as anyone 😂 everyone piling on -1.5 like the Flames backend won't show up game one... ah well, nowt to do 🔥

Chris, the way I look at it is like shovelling the driveway after the first snowfall of the season - you never trust the first pass to clear everything. September legs are exactly that. My own ledger on October openers says favourites covering the puck line in game one cash far less often than the market thinks, because the depth lines get shuffled ice time and the special teams haven't settled. A -47 goal differential last year screams pass on Calgary outright, fair enough, but the Avs' top six beating a fresh backend by two goals on the 9th assumes everything clicks in one night, and that's a big assumption with a week off behind everyone. My split, depends how you count it - I'd price the two-goal margin as maybe a 30-something percent event, which makes +1 the value side even if the moneyline scares me. Taking a small C$20 position on Calgary +1 and leaving the -1.5 pile to GloryDays. 📊

Danny you watched we give up 259 goals last season and still believe in the backend game one?? 😂 MacKinnon's gonna eat them alive, ah well, nowt to do 🤬

Made my own spreadsheet for openers a few years back - first week of October is basically a dress rehearsal that counts. You can see it on the tape every year: new pairs feeling each other out, coaches checking structure before skill, and the offence usually lags the defence by a game or two. Calgary scored 212 in 82 last season, call it 2.6 a game, and that was with a full camp of chemistry. Expecting them to hang numbers on Colorado in game one, with a backend that coughed up 259, seems optimistic to me. Where I'd push back on the -1.5 crowd is the sample size: one match tells you almost nothing about either roster, and MacKinnon or not, opening-night games at the Saddledome run tighter than the table suggests. My lean is a modest Avalanche win, maybe a two-goal margin, but I'd rather play the total low than lay -1.5 at that price. Keep the stake small this early 📊

Nah StandsGuy you're all doom and no faith 😤 nobody's saying the 259 GA was fine - I watched that season through my fingers too. But everyone piling -1.5 on a dress rehearsal game one? Ben said it himself, coaches run structure before skill, openers are sloppy. I was at the Saddledome two seasons back when we slapped Edmonton around in the home opener and the whole building was deaf 🥁 GO FLAMES GO and everyone here was eating crow by the second intermission. Put a small prop down on C$ at the overtime/margin market instead of the puck line. Colorado wins plenty of these 4-2 type games, covering -1.5 in October is where these "sure things" die. You just know MacKinnon gets his points and we still hang around 😂

Same boat as Chris on this one, I priced that October 9 game and Colorado -1.5 was the only number that made sense for my bankroll, so that's locked with a small slice on the moneyline for insurance. Yesterday taught me the lesson again: favourite price is steep in openers, but 212 goals against a contender doesn't sneak past anyone. Small stakes though, Sloppy openers burn more tickets than bad reads do 😭 See you all after the match 💸