Flames at 29th with 212 goals in 82 games
Checked the numbers and honestly I'm with you on the side, just not sure about the price. A team that went 212-259 over 82 games and finished 29th overall walking into Vegas? That's a moneyline fade every night of the week for me. I tracked the goalies all last season before touching any Calgary total and it rarely changed the picture, they just couldn't score enough to keep games close, and the puck line at plus money wasn't worth it either.
For me it's Flames loss in Vegas on October 16, and I'd rather take the ML straight than chase a score prediction. I'll probably put C$50 on it when the the bookie lines post, nothing crazy. The Anaheim game on the 14th is the one I'm eyeing actually, if the market prices Calgary as a road favourite there I might load up on the Ducks instead. Had a bad habit last year of betting against my gut in those spots and it cost me a good chunk of bankroll, so this season the line gets my money, not the logo. 🔥💸
Bankroll discipline wins.
Run the goal differential through any reasonable model and Calgary's side starts looking rough, Ben. A minus-47 over 82 games with only 212 scored, that's bottom-of-the-league shot quality on top of leaking chances, and 29th place with 77 points doesn't happen by accident. The wrinkle, and there's always a nuance here, is that an 82-game sample tells you about the roster, not about how they'll look on October 16 specifically; opening nights have their own noise.
That said, I'm not touching the Flames moneyline in Vegas, period. If I play anything on that date it's the side or a team-total prop against them, sized small, and honestly the Anaheim game on the 14th might be the better value spot, since road back-to-back trips into California after a long trek tend to flatten an already thin roster. Caveat: one game is one game, don't go mortgaging the bankroll on either, eh. 📊
I keep my own tables 📊
Both of you are pricing this like Vegas at home is a free win, and that's exactly where books make their margin. Yeah, the numbers are ugly, minus-47, 212 goals, 29th place, I had a slice on the road moneyline against them last spring and it landed easy enough. But an October 16 opener on a road trip? Kind of random variance territory, cold goalies on both ends, and I've seen worse teams than Calgary steal one in Vegas when the Knights come out flat after a ring-night type of atmosphere.
My play: skip the juice on the Knights ML and look at Calgary plus the puck line if it's sitting at +1.5 anywhere near even. That's where the value lives with a bad team - they lose by one more often than the market thinks. Anaheim on the 14th I'd sooner take the Ducks side outright, but Vegas, I want the cushion. A single unit, maybe 50 C$ of my bankroll, no more. If Hill or whoever starts in net for them gets confirmed as a backup, I'm going even harder on the +1.5. 🔥
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
"landed easy enough" 😂 sure thing, mate, funny how every one of your "easy" winners comes with a story and zero slips. You tanked the last road trip pick too, so your Vegas confidence means sweet F-A. 💸😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
JackBeliever's got a point though, I've watched enough hockey to know a bad number makes people overpay for the favourite. That said, this Calgary team scored 212 goals in 82 games, back in the day a guy could carry a line by himself past that, and now it's a whole season 😄 I'd still side with Ben and fade them on the 16th in Vegas, but I'm keeping the stake small; my old man used to say don't bet more than your favourite chair's worth.
Seen it all, lads.
212 goals in 82 games and half this thread still needs a model to tell them the Flames are toast 😂 that's like needing a spreadsheet to know the Saddledome popcorn is overpriced. The scary part is they only won 34 of 82 - the other 48 results were losses or the loser-point charity lap, and minus-47 doesn't happen to a team that shows up on defence. Vegas at home after they've already hit Anaheim on the 14th? That second game of a road swing against a legit side is where bad teams quietly roll over. So yeah, I'll take the favourite here, taken enough C$ off those "easy" moneylines to know when a fade actually pays. JackBeliever, remind me of your ROI before you start lecturing us about bookie margin again? 🤡💸😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
Ha, StandsGuy's popcorn line made my morning 😄 I had season seats through the rebuild in the 90s and believe me, watching this club finish 29th with 212 goals hurts less when you've seen worse barns. Only caveat I'd add to the fade talk: opening night in Vegas, first road game of the trip, teams sometimes get one punch-drunk effort in them before reality sets in. So I'd lean the Ducks game in Anaheim on the 14th for a safer look myself.
Wow, KevReds dropping 90s trauma like a badge of honour 😂 respect the suffering, bud. StandsGuy's right though, you need zero model to see this roster can't finish. 212 goals in 82 and we're acting like the Vegas trip is some coin flip? I put a cheeky C$20 on the Knights moneyline the second I saw the thread, live with it 🤡💸
What I actually want to know is who's touching the October 14 Anaheim game, 'cause fading Calgary there pays worse than Vegas and everyone's too scared to say it out loud. Wait for the fanboys to pile in with their "any given night" talk... laughable really. 😏
kev, your popcorn line is doing more work than the flames power play did all season 😄 and enforcer's right. Nobody needs a spreadsheet here, 212 in 82 tells you everything.
only thing I'll add is my usual caveat from decades of getting burned: the young lot never saw a team this bad that still shows up on second night of a road trip. Vegas on the 16th, sure, I'd fade them too, no argument. but anaheim in the 14th? west coast trip, both teams looking at each other, those games go sideways more often than folks think. back in the day I watched worse calgary squads steal two points in the pendulum games nobody bothered watching. so my call is flames lose in vegas, no guts no glory, but I'd keep my stake small and skip the anaheim game entirely rather than touch that puck line. watch as long as I have and you'll get it 😉
Took the 212-259 lads in a survivor pool once as a joke pick and got burned so bad I priced my next parlay around never trusting them again 😂
Honestly the Vegas game on the 16th isn't even the interesting one to me. The Ducks double header either side of it is where the market's gonna be wonky. Everyone fades Calgary against a real opponent, fine, but a team that managed 212 in 82 hiding behind a "they can't be that bad against Anaheim" price? That's where casual money bleeds. I'll take Vegas straight up and stay well clear of the puck line, thanks 🤡💸 Anyone claiming they've got an edge here, remind me of your ROI?
Show me your ROI first 😏
Locked the Vegas fade on the 16th, small on the puck line at Anaheim two nights earlier too. Waited on the goalie cards before touching totals. See you after the match 💸
Value over a big price 💸