Everyone's fading the Leafs at 28th, I'm calling the upset anyway
Calling the Leafs at home over Buffalo on Oct 15, full stop. Yes they're 28th and that road swing through Vegas, Colorado and Utah is a nightmare, but the Sabres are the kind of opponent Toronto's 253-goal offence can punish, and I'll take the moneyline over paying juice on a tired-team narrative. Might sprinkle a small puck lean too if the line moves my way after the Utah game. Staked C$50 on the ML, that's my bravery quota. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Harry, I pulled the league table apart before agreeing with you: 32-14-36 is an odd shape, fourteen ties-in-regular-time games (assuming that column is OT losses, which there's a nuance about) means the Leafs kept games close far more often than a 28th-place club should. Goal differential of -46 over 82 games is ugly, but 253 goals scored still clears what most bottom-five offences manage, so Buffalo's defence. Mid-table at best. Isn't scary. Caveat on sample size: we have zero games played in this stretch, so the Vegas-Colorado-Utah fatigue factor is projection rather than data.
I keep my own tables 📊
Harry, I pulled the league table apart before agreeing with you: 32-14-36 is an odd shape, fourteen ties-in-regular-time games (assuming that column is OT losses, which there's a nuance about) means the Leafs kept games …
That 32-14-36 shape is cute, Jack, but close losses still cost me C$ a night, they don't pay. Fatigue after Vegas, Colorado and Utah back-to-back-ish? I'm on Buffalo +moneyline at Scotiabank. Small stake, on and forgotten if it doesn't land 💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
lol Chris fading the Leafs again? your last "small stake, on and forgotten" cashed the same place your Sabres pick did in March 😏 Fade away, buddy, more C$ for the rest of us.
😂 Enforcer out here tracking Chris's March misses like a scoreboard operator, love it. Here's my wrinkle though: that Utah game on the 14th right before Buffalo on the 15th is the real trap. Back-to-back with travel after Vegas and Colorado? Even if the Leafs survive the swing, they land home dead-legged, and everyone painting Oct 15 as a free upset spot is ignoring that Buffalo gets a rested squad vs a wrecked one.
Me personally I'm not touching the moneyline either way. If anything the value's on Toronto's offence - 253 goals is real talent stuck in a bad team, and the Sabres leak chances. Wait for the fanboys to pile in with "home ice saves them" takes 🤡 Meanwhile I'll be watching the Oct 9 Vegas game first, because if that swing starts 0-for, the whole narrative flips by the time they reach Scotiabank. Remind me of your ROI before you marry a side, mate 😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
StandsGuy hit on the wrinkle I was muttering about over my coffee this morning. back in my day we called it a "road trip hangover game" and old barns full of us knew to fade the tired club. Utah on the 14th then Buffalo at home the next night, that's where the C$ leaks for Toronto. I'll side with Harry on the Sabres game only if the Leafs somehow crawl out of that swing with legs left; otherwise I'm quietly with Chris, small stake and no heartbreak 😄
Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
ValueHunter calling it a "hangover game" while everyone forgets Buffalo has to fly in for that same Oct 15 date too, no? Tired legs cut both ways mate, and a 253-goal offence at home vs a Sabres side that leaks goals is where my C$ is going 🤡 Chris fading the Leafs again, laughable really 😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
tired legs cut both ways, fair point Millie, but the second night of a back-to-back at home still beats flying in that afternoon. i took a small C$ punt on Toronto in a spot like this years ago and got burned by the puck line instead of the moneyline - lesson learned there 😄. i'll lean Leafs in regulation, just keep the stake modest until we see how Utah on the 14th goes.
Seen it all, lads.
BadBeat got burned by the puck line once and now he lectures us all, classic 😂 Meanwhile everyone's acting like Buffalo flying in on the 15th is some luxury holiday. That club's been leaking goals all season and we're giving them respect why exactly? Remind me of your ROI before anyone fades the home side here, I've had a C$ float on Toronto moneyline since Harry called it and I sleep fine.
Show me your ROI first 😏
Ha, Uncle_Faithful finally said something I agree with 😄 Buffalo's defence leaks worse than my old garage roof, small C$ on Toronto, but straight moneyline, no puck line nonsense.
KevReds talking sense for once - moneyline only, that's how I've been playing Toronto all season. Backed them yesterday against Nashville and it landed, so the bankroll says ride the wave: Leafs ML on Oct 15, modest C$ stake, and if the Sabres' defence shows up as leaky as it's been all year the payoff should take care of itself. See you after the match 😏💸
Bankroll discipline wins.