Everyone's fading Calgary at 29th

Harry, your C$50 is doing better work than most "analysts" manage with ten times that. The case for the Flames at 29th is thinner than it looks once you actually parse the record: 34-9-39 with nine of those losses decided in OT or the shootout means roughly a quarter of their schedule was a coin flip rather than a beating. Swap two or three of those for wins and they're mid-pack on points, nothing like a 29th-overall outfit. There's a nuance here though - the goal differential (212 against 259) suggests those close losses weren't all bad luck; a negative-47 team usually earns some of its record. My read: the moneyline is the wrong market for this. If you want Calgary on Oct 9, the puck line with the plus goals is where the value sits, because you're betting on competitive rather than victory. Sample size caveat applies too. One opening-night game against a Colorado side that's presumably better on paper tells us more about variance than about either roster.

Ben, didn't you fade Calgary last home opener too? How'd that C$ work out for ya 😂 Harry's C$50 has more guts than your puck line heroics. Wait for the fanboys to pile in 🤡

Lmao Enforcer acting like he called anything 😂 Czech the schedule boys, Colorado same week as Seattle travel, one bounce is all we need 🏒🇨🇦

I keep my spreadsheet through the summer for exactly this kind of thread, and here's the column everyone skips: the goal differential. 📊 Calgary went 212-259, so the "nine one-bounce losses" story only covers part of it. Sure, three-bucket wins over 82 games is thin ice, but a minus 47 at home ice is telling you the defence leaked real goals too, not just overtime heartbreakers. Dig a bit deeper and those nine OT/SO losses could just as easily read as nine games where the opponent outplayed them and got punished for dragging it past 60. That said, if I'm picking a side in this thread, I lean slightly toward Harry, depends how you count it: October 9 is the first game of the season for both clubs, and openers are chaos, full stop. Colorado might roll out of camp rusty the same as anyone. My own play would be the puck line rather than the moneyline. Calgary losing by one still pays, and that fits the "close but not quite" profile the record actually supports.

spreadsheet nerd lol, one bounce goes the other way nine times and the dome is LOUD 😤 C$50 says we shock Colorado Oct 9 💪🔥

Gary's goal-difference column is the one that matters; 212-for over 82 games is rough. My sheet says pass on the moneyline, maybe a punt prop at the Dome.

Lol everyone waving the spreadsheet around like 212 goals means the Dome is gonna go quiet 😤 home opener, crowd packing the Saddledome, Colorado flying in dead tired... one bounce the other way and we're chanting. I'll toss a small prop on it, why not 🙌🔥

Nobody's mentioned the schedule yet, so I will: Colorado on Oct 9 comes early in their season too, and the second night of back-to-back travel through the mountain time zone is where favourites genuinely stumble. That's a real edge, small sample though, one game. I'd still stop short of the moneyline; the 212-259 differential is too heavy to ignore, so a puck line plus-C$ at home is where my modest C$20 goes, with Colorado at altitude and dead legs. Context matters: if the Flames steal it, likely by one.

Zoe's got the only take I trust tbh, that travel schedule wrecking favourites is real 💪 but Ben you dropped my 212-for like it proves something. Nine OT/SO losses say we were RIGHT THERE 😤 who among you spreadsheet guys actually put a loonie on the upset Oct 9? Didn't think so 🔥

Veteran, fair jab, but count how those 34 wins split against the 48 in regulation losses and you'll see the base rate still owns the upset case 📊 My angle is different from Zoe's: October openers run on goaltending variance, and a cold starter versus a rusty one is roughly a coin flip regardless of the table spot. So I'll take the puck line rather than the moneyline, Calgary keeping Colorado within one at the Dome is where the price actually pays, and I'm putting C$25 on it myself.

Everyone preaching variance like it's gospel 😱 if goalies are a coin flip, why fade we at home at all? Tossing C$20 on the upset, let's give'r Oct 9 🔥

Count me in then, since apparently nobody's actually posting a stake. C$40 on the Flames moneyline Oct 9, plus a half-unit on the puck line if the price sits above +1.5 goals territory when lines firm up, I'll check the goalie confirmations that morning before anything else, because October openers live and die on who's in the blue paint. The value over a big favourite this early is real; books shade these lines toward the name on the jersey and sharp money hasn't landed yet. Landed or not, I'll report back with the ticket. If Colorado shows up flat off travel through mountain time like Zoe says, that payout covers my whole road trip to the Seattle and Anaheim away games the week after. See you all after the final horn 🔥💸