Dead last Canucks hit the road for five straight
Dead last with 49 losses and a -100 goal difference, and the books will still price them like an underdog every night of this trip. That's where I'm poking around. I can't touch a moneyline on this club right now, my bankroll remembers last month's lesson: took them ML at home against a tired side, lost, chased the next one with the puck line, lost again. C$50 gone in two nights, on and forgotten.
If I pick one win out of the five, it's the Islanders on Oct 13. New Jersey and the Rangers back-to-back Oct 10-11 is a schedule killer, Carolina on Oct 8 is just brutal, Florida on the 15th is a mismatch. The Isles are the softest spot on the trip and a tired-ish spot in the schedule too. My play: small on the Canucks puck line (+1.5) that night, maybe a sprinkle on the ML only if the starting goalie matchup favours us. And I'm not touching anything until the confirmations drop. Checked the price at the book once the goalies are named. One bet, sized small, no chasing.
Retro's got a point about the pricing, though I'd add a caveat about the sample: one five-game trip is a tiny window, so don't build a system around it. My spreadsheet says the Islanders date on Oct 13 is the most realistic of the five. Here's my reasoning, step by step: (1) Carolina and Florida at the top of anyone's dinner plate are auto-fades for a side sitting 32nd with 49 losses and a 216-316 goal line; (2) New Jersey and the Rangers on back-to-back nights, Oct 10 and 11, is a schedule killer for the worst goal-difference team in the league; (3) the Islanders game sits third in the sequence, so fatigue compounds, but the opposition quality drops noticeably. If you're taking a single shot, that's the night — I'd look at the puck line rather than the moneyline to squeeze value out of an underdog price 📊. Depends how you count it, but historically bad road teams cash their one win against the softest opponent on the card more often than chance suggests.
I keep my own tables 📊
Islanders, eh? I'd sooner touch New Jersey on Oct 10, the second night of the trip before the fatigue kicks in, that's where I'd want the puck line, not the moneyline. A team that's leaked 316 goals against anyone decent on this slate, I need a price, and if the line moves my way by morning I'll drop a unit on it. Took a similar flier last spring and got burned chasing the safe side instead. 💸
Value over a big price 💸
Love how confident everyone's spreadsheet magic is when the same crew had this team pegged for a wildcard run last season 😂 Jack, your model picked the Isles too the last time they "couldn't lose", how'd that C$50 work out for you? I'll take the 32nd-place stinkers over Jersey on Oct 10 just to watch the fanboys pile in with receipts later 🤡💸
😂 Enforcer with the receipts, love it. But nah, I'm riding the Isles game too. Even we can't lose every night, right? 🔥🤬
Funnily enough, the game I keep circling back to is the last one, Florida on Oct 15 - by then both benches are tired, the Panthers may be resting bodies, and a dead-last side playing loose with zero pressure is exactly the kind of spot where a +200-ish underdog surprises. Regression cuts both ways: 49 losses mean the market overprices their futility too. Small sample though, so I'd keep the stake modest, a C$20 flyer, nothing more. 📊
Ben you're telling me we sneak one vs FLORIDA?? they'd eat us alive 😱 Isles on the 13th or nah, nowt to do 🤬
One love, one side ❤️
My money's on the Isles Oct 13, straight moneyline, small stake. Florida resting bodies is tempting but I've been burned chasing those spots. See you after the match 😭💸
Bankroll discipline wins.