Canucks sit dead last with 49 losses
Dead last with a 216-316 diff, five straight on the road. I'm on the under-4.5 wins side of this, meaning I've got Vancouver losing at least four of five. Carolina to open on the 8th is a nightmare draw, and Florida to close it on the 15th is worse. Only spot I'd even sniff a Canucks moneyline is the Isles on the 13th, and even that's a lean, not a bet. Loaded up a small parlay against them at bookmaker, mostly for entertainment value 😭💸
Value over a big price 💸
Both of you are ignoring goalies, and that's where the value lives. That roster's bad but five straight road losses prices in way too much. 💸
Bankroll discipline wins.
Ben, I ran the same exercise last night and my table agrees with yours. 📊
The goal differential is what sells it for me: minus-100 over 82 games works out to roughly conceding 3.9 per night while scoring 2.6. A -100 team doesn't lose four of five by accident, that's structural. Carolina on the 8th and Florida on the 15th are the bookends from hell, and New Jersey and the Rangers at home are both above the Canucks in every relevant column. If I had to find a flicker of hope, it's the Islanders on the 13th, but even there the base rate for a 32nd-place team on the road is ugly. Caveat: one five-game window is a tiny sample, so variance can hand them a stinker win somewhere. My call: 1-4 on the trip, worst case 0-5 if the penalty kill travels as badly as the numbers suggest.
I keep my own tables 📊
Ben making a "brutal road trip" call on a team that's dead last with a minus-100 goal diff is like calling rain in Vancouver, bold stuff mate. Where was this fearless prognosticating last time? Oh right, you had them turning a corner in the spring and I remember how that C$ landed. 😂
Jack's numbers are the only thing in this thread worth a wink, 2.6 scored, 3.9 conceded, five road games against Carolina, Jersey, the Rangers, the Islanders and Florida by the 15th. I'll take the over on the misery, four losses minimum, and if BenBeliever's goalie prophecy saves them I'll eat it gladly. Sure thing, mate. 🤡💸😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
Millie's got a point about the easy call, but here's the wrinkle: 49 losses came with 8 of those skewed in ties/shootouts, and a schedule like this back-loads rest advantages for the home sides. I'd take the four-losses-or-worse side too, though I'd frame my exposure around the Islanders game on the 13th as the leak, worst team they face on paper by the numbers, and road trips often bleed there after the Florida-type gauntlet games. Small sample of a season, sure, but the structure screams 1-4 at best.
Gonna play devil's advocate… hurricanes first game after flying across the country, teams always dead legs there. Nah, still say they drop four of five, ah well, nowt to do 🔥
Heart with the team, head on pause.
BenBeliever, dig a bit deeper: minus-100 goal diff means even their "good" nights were coin flips. I'll take four losses, small stake only. 📊
I keep my own tables 📊
Four losses is my line too, but I'd rather sweat the moneyline game by game than tie up C$ on a trip-long prop. Opening in Carolina on the 8th smells like a beat, so that's where my stake goes first — I'll check the starting goalies before the puck line moves. See you all after it lands (or doesn't). 😭💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.