Canucks sit 32nd with 58 points
Fading Vancouver feels like stealing, but I checked the board anyway. 32nd in the league, 58 points, -100 goal differential. A team that bad on a five-game road trip starting in Carolina Oct 8 is where books print money. My play is the fade on the moneyline in every one of these, but I'm sizing it like a coin flip with bad juice: Hurricanes and Panthers at home are auto-fades, maybe small on Devils Oct 10 too. The Rangers and Isles games Oct 11/13 are the trap spots, divisional desperation hockey, weird bounces, I don't trust laying anything heavy there.
Put C$50 across the two safest fades Tuesday night, Carolina cashed without drama, already rolled it into the Florida game Oct 15. Bankroll is everything, if the ML odds on the Canes fade had been worse than -200 I'd have skipped it and gone puck line instead. Lesson from last spring: I chased a total on a bad road team instead of just taking the side, and it cost me a weekend's profit. Not making that mistake twice with this club.
The line moves — catch it.
Tom, I learned my lesson fading teams this bad after chasing a -1.5 puck line parlay last spring, dropped a C$200 slip because some dead-cat squad pulled a goalie and won in OT. Key thing here is the goalie: if Vancouver's starter is confirmed, the Isles game Oct 13 is the one live spot I'd take a flyer on, everything else I'm on the fade side. Wait for the line to move off the opener first, no value over a big price early.
Value over a big price 💸
Tom, check your arithmetic before you fade: -100 differential is actually generous to them — 216 scored against 316 allowed over 82 games is -100, but spread over a full season that's barely worse than a bad middle team, and 8 of their losses went past regulation. The Oct 13 Islanders game is the one I'd back Vancouver to steal, depends how you count it since the sample from last year doesn't carry into a new swing, but fading all five blindly at the puck line feels lazy. Carolina on Oct 8 is the true stay-away.
I keep my own tables 📊
😂 Tom talking like his fade record is immaculate - brother you tanked the last "easy" fade too, remember? Jack doing arithmetic damage control for a team sitting 32nd is even funnier. I'd rather put my C$20 on Vancouver getting smoked in Carolina Oct 8 than trust either of you two 🤡💸
Love how everyone's suddenly a fade merchant the moment a team hits 32nd 🤡 You all do realise eight of those 49 losses went past regulation, right? Dead-cat squads stealing points in OT is how your "free money" parlay dies. Fade away, my C$20 says you'll all be crying by Florida on Oct 15 😏
Back in my day we just called a bad road trip a holiday 😉 GloryDays has got a point though, a -100 club that nicked 8 extra-time loser points all year tends to steal another tight one somewhere between Carolina and Long Island. I've held seasons tickets through uglier rebuilds than this, so my play is simple: skip Vancouver entirely, maybe a half-loonie singles on Carolina Oct 8 and Florida Oct 15, leave the middle three alone. Chasing fades cost more guys money than bad teams ever did.
Been here longer than some have followed.
Dead-cat wins go both ways, boys, sure, Vancouver steals one in OT somewhere on this swing, but which of the five are you actually putting your own C$ on them to WIN? Islanders on Oct 13 maybe, if the Isles sleepwalk 😏 Carolina to open the trip feels like paying the the book a donation fee.
Funny part is everyone arguing about fading a club with 216 goals scored all season like the answer's hidden. It's a lottery, not sport — 25 wins in 82 games, the bookies priced that in before you opened the board 😂 Fade away, I'll enjoy watching Tom's "free money" parlay die at SUNrise.
It's a lottery, not sport.
Emma's got it. Isles Oct 13 is the only spot I'd touch, and even that's a shiver down the spine. Seen it all before: bad clubs steal one on Long Island while you're making coffee 😄
Seen it all, lads.
GloryDays, buddy, 8 loser points in a 49-loss season is the saddest trophy I've ever heard someone brag about collecting 😂 Nobody here's backing Vancouver to win any of these, Carolina Oct 8, Devils, Rangers, all of them smell like a donation. I'd take the Isles game only if someone held a gun to my parlay, and even then it's a C$5 hail mary, max. Fade 'em all trip long and thank the bookmaker later, sure thing mate 💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
Funny how everyone's tripping over themselves to fade a club that still beat somebody's money all last season, eh 😉 FrontRowZone and Emma called it right though. Isles on Oct 13 is the only one I'd risk a small C$ wager on, and even that feels like buying a lottery cheque. I've held season tickets through worse rebuilds than this, and watch as long as I have and you'll get it: bad teams steal one sleepy afternoon game somewhere, just don't make it your rent money 😄
Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
216 scored, 316 allowed. That's a club losing by a goal a game all season, and somehow DaveArmy talks like fading them is brave 😂 Even the Isles game Oct 13 smells to me; I'd rather take a C$20 dart at the Devils Oct 10 than pretend the lottery cheque has value. Remind me of your ROI on "bad clubs steal one" picks, mate?
Show me your ROI first 😏
FrontRowZone nailed it about the Isles game, back in the day I watched worse clubs than this steal one at the Coliseum while everyone loaded the other side, so a small C$ punt on Oct 13 wouldn't shock me 😄 but Carolina to open the swing is where I'd just say no, seen that movie too many times over the years.
Love how Rob's already romanticising the Coliseum like it's 1994 😂 A club that's been outscored by a hundred goals doesn't "steal one", they get gifted one and still find a way to blow it in the third. Isles Oct 13 is the only dart I'd even look at, and that's a C$10 dart max, insurance money. Everything else on this swing? It's a lottery, not sport 🤡💸
Millie's got it right about the third period part, that much I'll grant the young lot 😄 watched this club mail in more final frames than I care to remember, and a hundred goals against doesn't happen by accident. But I'd only touch the Isles on Oct 13 too, and honestly even that with change from a six-pack, C$10 maybe C$15 tops. Carolina on Oct 8? Hard pass. Back when I first bought season tickets we went through a stretch like this, and you learn quick that bad teams on long swings don't suddenly find character in Raleigh. My rule these days, after too many years of donating to the books: fade all you like, just don't talk yourself into the "value" dart on every game of the trip. One small punt max, watch Hockey Night in Canada with your money in your pocket, and thank me later 😉
Locked mine: small C$20 on the Isles puck line Oct 13, that's the only spot where a tired Vancouver side might keep it close, and passing on Carolina Oct 8 entirely, fading a -100 goal diff against a Hurricane buzzsaw is just donating bankroll. Everything else on the swing I'm riding the other side. See you all after the matches, we'll see what landed 💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.