28th place, 299 goals against
28th in the league and 299 against? That leaky defence is why I won't touch their moneyline anywhere on this road trip. Vegas on October 9 as a road dog, sure, they'll get a price at the book worth a look, but I'd rather take the puck line against Toronto than for them, if anything. Colorado the next night on a back-to-back after flying from Vegas? That's a fade in my book regardless of form.
My plays: small on Vegas ML October 9, pass on October 10 in Denver entirely (back-to-back road spots burn bankroll more than bad teams do), and Utah on the 14th I'll leave alone until I see who's in net. The only one I'd back the Leafs is October 15 vs Buffalo at Scotiabank, home date against a fellow bottom-feeder, that's the one spot they might land. Staking 1 unit max on anything here, bankroll is everything in a stretch like this. Weigh yours before you fire. 💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.
ChrisDiehard, you're reading the table right: 46 goals shipped over par (253-299) and a 32-36 record tells you the defence never got fixed, not a bad-luck season. My wrinkle is the schedule. Three road games in six nights (Vegas Oct 9, Colorado Oct 10, Utah Oct 14) on back-to-back altitude legs, that's where the leak gets worse, so I'd fade them on the puck line in Colorado especially, small sample warning aside since it's game one. Modest C$20 a slip for me, Buffalo at home Oct 15 is the only spot I'd even consider backing them.
ChrisDiehard, you're reading the table right: 46 goals shipped over par (253-299) and a 32-36 record tells you the defence never got fixed, not a bad-luck season. My wrinkle is the schedule. Three road games in six night…
Ben_Ultra, schedule or no schedule, 299 against screams fade. One unit on Vegas -1.5 October 9, C$50, and I'm skipping Colorado back-to-back entirely. 😭💸
Bankroll discipline wins.
HarryBlues, love the confidence from a guy who's own picks went 2-for-9 last month 🤡 now suddenly you're a Vegas -1.5 prophet with your whole toonie bank on it. The Leafs ship 299 and everyone's a genius fading them, sure thing mate, until Colorado cashes the other side October 10 and you're quiet again 😏
Show me your ROI first 😏
Millie going for the throat 😂😂 honestly though Harry, 2-for-9 and now a C$50 puck line special, that's brave lol. Chris might be onto something tho - 299 against, yeah the fade writes itself, but I still got a soft spot, been backing them all day for 20 years.ah well, nowt to do, gonna take the Leafs moneyline in Vegas at a decent price and regret it by midnight 🔥😱
On the terraces since I was a kid.
Twenty years of soft-spot money is exactly how Harry's bankroll ended up at toonie stakes, Steve, no offence meant 📊
My angle is the back-to-back itself: Vegas on the 9th then Colorado on the 10th means whichever goalie starts in Sin City, you know the second night gets the tired legs, and books price these road trips knowing full well most casual Leafs money shows up out of loyalty. The 299 against isn't luck over an 82-game sample, that's structural, so I'd sooner take the over on goals in the Vegas game than try to guess a side. My stakes, for what they're worth: half unit on Vegas -1.5 October 9, pass on Colorado entirely, and the only date I'd even consider touching Toronto is Buffalo at home on the 15th, and only if the price has drifted by then. Small caveat before anyone quotes me: four games is a tiny window, and one hot goalie can wreck a whole fade card.
I keep my own tables 📊
Y'all writing off the Leafs like 299 against means anything in game one... every season starts 0-0 🔥😂 Harry with C$50 again, heart says it all buddy 🤬
On the terraces since I was a kid.
Chloe, the "every season starts 0-0" argument cuts both ways, the books price October 9 with last season's 299 against baked in, so you're paying a faded price either way. My lean: skip the moneyline entirely in Vegas, small play on the over if you must touch that game, because a leaky defence plus tired legs on both sides of the back-to-back history points to goals. Keep the stake to 1-2% of bankroll until we see who starts in net; two games is a tiny sample, but the schedule itself is the edge here. 📊
Context beats a bare stat.
Chloe, Zoe's got a point tbh, 299 against is baked into that price 🔥 Nah I'm with Harry tho, C$50 puck line on the 9th, heart over head ah well, nowt to do
One love, one side ❤️
I keep my own table for this sort of thing, and one line jumps out: 14 draws in 82 games means Toronto's games rarely settle clean, so the value angle on October 9 in Vegas is the total, not the side - a defence that coughed up 299 still has to face Colorado on the 10th, and Vegas tends to run up the count at home. Small sample though, it's game one, so I'd keep the stake to something a rookie like Harry could double without flinching. Chloe, heart is lovely, but 0-0 doesn't reset a goalie's glove hand.
I keep my own tables 📊
Chloe's C$50 on heart alone 😱 299 against wasn't a typo, that's a fire drill. Vegas total angle I get, moneyline? Nah, my wallet's hiding 🤬
My spreadsheet says the same thing Gary's does, roughly: 46 regulation losses in 82 games tells you more about this club than the goal column does, and a team that loses clean that often rarely drifts to overs. So on October 9 in Vegas I'd rather lay a modest total-under stake than chase either side. The Golden Knights at home should control pace, and Toronto's 36 wins came against weaker schedules, if we're counting last season as anything at all. Keep the October 10 Colorado game off the card entirely; back-to-backs on the road are where bankrolls go to die. 📊
Do the math before you argue.
Spreadsheet lads, ya kill me 😱 46 regulation losses, 299 against, yeah we KNOW... but Harry's C$50 puck line on the 9th got me tempted, Vegas after a back-to-back against our lot never make it easy tbh 🔥 stakes on the 10th in Colorado? nah, wallet stays shut there ah well, nowt to do
Heart with the team, head on pause.
Right, locking mine in before I talk myself out of it. October 9 in Vegas I'm on the puck line, C$75. Price on the road dog should be juicy enough that the +1.5 covers the 299-against worry, and if they land outright that's a proper payout. Harry's got a point about Vegas after a back-to-back too, that's half my reason for siding with Toronto getting a cushion. The 10th in Colorado? Wallet shut, no shame in it, that's a fade spot for everyone in this thread I reckon. I'll even check who's starting in goal before the puck drops, that's my whole routine with this club.
October 14 in Utah I'll throw a small C$20 on the moneyline just to have skin in it, and the 15th at home to Buffalo I'm back on the puck line, C$50, home ice at Scotiabank against a fellow Canadian club, drought talk aside, that's the one I feel best about. See you all after the 9th, hopefully I'm not posting a slip story about how I chased a loss by the 15th 😭💸
Up one week, down the next. Classic.