28th in the NHL and you still back the Leafs at home?
28th in the league and the price on them at home will still be shorter than it should be, bookies know the brand sells. I'd take Nashville on the moneyline at Scotiabank on Oct 6 and chase the Leafs' road swing instead - Vegas and Colorado back-to-back feels like two losses, so Utah or Buffalo are the only spots I'd even glance at Toronto. Keep the stake small either way, that goal difference scares me off anything bigger 💸
The line moves — catch it.
Two of their 14 draws in a row here, Beth's got a point, but the sample size on a single October game is tiny. Nashville as a road favourite against a team that ran 253-299 is reasonable value, though I'd frame it more as "Leafs at 28th with a negative differential rarely justify a short home price" than a lock. The Utah/Buffalo legs of that swing are where I'd look for the puck line instead, since those are the only road games where the market won't fully price Toronto's struggles yet 📊
I keep my own tables 📊
Honestly Jack, I'd flip it - I'm riding the Leafs moneyline against Nashville on the 6th and staying off the road swing, Vegas and Colorado in back-to-back nights is where bankrolls go to die. Last season I dropped C$150 chasing a road double and learned my lesson. The goalie situation will decide the home opener, wait for the confirmed starter before touching that price.
Bankroll discipline wins.
Harry riding the Leafs ML 😂 remind me of your ROI, mate? Last time you fancied them you were down C$150 by Christmas. Sure thing, buddy 🤡💸
Show me your ROI first 😏
StandsGuy out here roasting Harry for the C$150 while openly siding with Beth's fade, gotta love the consistency 😂
Here's my thing though: everyone keeps saying the price on the Leafs at home will be too short because of the brand, and sure, that happens. But the brand doesn't pay out when the goal diff is 253-299 and they've shipped 46 more than they've scored. Nashville on the 6th is the one I'd actually look at, and I'm with Beth on fading the road trip. Vegas then Colorado on back-to-back nights on Oct 9-10 is a nightmare spot no matter who you are, and Utah the night after that? Brutal scheduling. Buffalo at home on the 15th might be the only game in that stretch I'd even consider touching a Leafs prop on, and even then I'd want a price, not some inflated home number.
Harry, respect for the honesty about chasing that road double last year, genuinely.
harry's got stones, i'll give him that 😄 seen worse leafs teams win openers at the bank back in my day. my caveat: never touch the mountain swing - colorado on the 10th ate my wallet once, C$100 gone before dinner.
Been here longer than some have followed.
Harry, back-to-backs in Vegas then Colorado are brutal. That Utah game on the 14th after the mountain trip? Bodies will be toast 😏 what's your play there, or is that off-limits like the C$150 lesson 🤡
Show me your ROI first 😏
Fine, locking it in. Nashville on Oct 6 at the bank: Leafs ML, small stake, plus a lean on the puck line if the number's reasonable by puck drop. Road swing I'll split my unit, Utah on the 14th as the value play, that's a tired-legs spot both ways and the price on them might actually be fair for once. Vegas and Colorado on the 9th/10th? No thanks, watching that one with a beer instead of a slip 😭
C$150 by Christmas, sure, one bad November two years back and it never dies 🤡 My slip record on openers at Scotiabank is better than you'd think. See you after the 14th, I'll post the ledger either way. 💸
Value over a big price 💸